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Does Kathy Hochul Have a New York Community Bank Endgame?
FDIC Chairman Gruenberg ought to tell New York State to take over the rent controlled loans from Signature, NYCB and other lenders...
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Mar 6, 20247 min read


WGA Releases Top 50 Bank Index | What's in Your ETF?
Not all banks or companies are the same and not all follow the herd.
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Feb 25, 20245 min read


Does CapitalOne + Discover Financial = Shareholder Value?
Elizabeth Warren and progressives in Congress should support COF's purchase of Discover as a way to compete with monopoly JPMorgan
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Feb 21, 20244 min read


Home Mortgage Rates Falling? Really?
If President Trump starts talking about fixing the federal budget deficit and redeveloping moribund urban real estate, he’d win in November
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Feb 18, 20246 min read


Fear & Loathing in Credit; Update: PayPal Holdings
We think that the whole banking industry could be driven into multiple periods of loss as they divert income to loss provisions.
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Feb 8, 20247 min read


Assume Loss Given Default > 100% | PennyMac & Western Alliance Bank
Q: What do Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and New York Community Bank have in common? Auditor, KPMG.
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Feb 4, 202410 min read


Interview: Bill Kennedy of RiskBridge Advisors
Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.
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Jan 24, 20249 min read


Update: U.S. Bancorp
Net interest income at USB was down again for the fourth consecutive quarter, confirming a trend across the banking industry
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Jan 22, 20245 min read


Banks Slow Walk Commercial Real Estate Losses
As reflected in the valuations for JPM, WFC and BXMT, institutional investors are still not that concerned about commercial real est losses
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Jan 18, 20247 min read


Citigroup Cannot Cut to Profitability
If Fraser cannot articulate a coherent reason to keep the business together, a breakup may be the most sensible strategy.
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Jan 15, 20247 min read


Bank Earnings Setup Q4 2023
Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.
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Jan 11, 20245 min read


Bank Reserves & Treasury Auctions
As the public debt of the US grows, after all, the implicit claim of the Treasury on all private US assets also grows.
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Jan 8, 20248 min read


Comments on Basel III Endgame
The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk
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Jan 3, 20243 min read


End of Fintech? Biden GSE Release?
Is AFRM maturing from a hot new fintech entrant to a familiar face headed for a bank license?? Yikes.
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Dec 31, 20237 min read


Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility
Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.
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Dec 21, 20237 min read


Stocks, Interest Rates and Reverse RPs
Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed
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Dec 8, 20234 min read


Update: Bank of America
If you conduct a fire sale analysis of BAC's balance sheet as of Q3 2023, the result more than wipes out the bank's tangible equity
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Nov 8, 20235 min read


ACH: The Bank Deposit Ain't in the Mail
Was the breakdown of the normally stable and, indeed, routine workings of the Clearinghouse the result of bad actors?
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Nov 6, 20234 min read


Interest Rates, Fintech & MSRs
Regulatory skepticism about mortgage assets could effect financing rates for lenders, which means higher mortgage rates for consumers.
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Oct 26, 20239 min read


QE Means Higher for Longer, But No Recession
We look for modest rate cuts in 2025, followed by an equally modest boom in mortgage lending
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Oct 24, 20235 min read
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