The Institutional Risk Analyst

Institutional investors can and do abide by limits on redemptions for private equity and credit, at least for a while. Retail investors cannot and do not, and will run when there are clear signs of distress and illiquidity. Remember the deposit run at Silicon Valley Bank.

Tech bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) dropped dramatically last week, but less than the stock had fallen in January or in December of last year. Cisco Systems (CSCO) tumbled 11%–12.3% on a downbeat outlook, making it one of the largest single-day drops last week. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 20% since January due to investor fatigue over the absurd AI narrative. Are these stocks a buy on the bounce?

Large-cap tech stocks experienced the worst week since November, causing a split market where value-oriented stocks are gaining attention, while tech stocks and crypto tokens are being liquidated. Equity managers are rotating out of tech and into everything else, creating a cosmic imbalance that is difficult for the non-tech equity market to absorb.

GS had a remarkable year in 2025, as shown in the table below. It is good to see the firm back on track after the disastrous experiment in retail banking and credit cards.  This is really one of the few pages in the GS public disclosure that has any useful information, which is a major reason that the Fed's Y-9C is must reading for analysts of Goldman Sachs.