The Institutional Risk Analyst

Several major private credit firms capped investor withdrawals this week, as an accelerated exit wave hit the industry. Firms typically limited redemptions to their customary 5% quarterly threshold. The Ares Strategic Income Fund capped withdrawals at 5% after receiving requests to redeem 14.4% of shares. And Apollo's flagship $26 billion retail-focused fund curbed redemptions at 5% after investors attempted to cash out 16.8% of their holdings.

Anybody focused on investing not concerned about agentic trading is fooling themselves. And it comes from a discussion I had with one of my sons about what may be happening inside virtual chat rooms that now exist that humans cannot enter. Only AI agents can enter these chat rooms. And they work with each other, not necessarily on trading and on strategies, but they work with each other on numbers and issues. Humans are barred from these chat rooms.

We have updated the WGA Precious Metals Top 25 for June 2026. Many of the gold funds are down for the year, having given up the gains seen in 2026 in the face of triple digit returns for AI related stocks. As we noted last week in “The Wrap,” when AI stocks are soaring and interest rates are rising, precious metals typically retreat. It's all about short-term yields and chasing the shiny object.

Another week goes by and there is still no peace agreement between the US and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and much of the world’s capacity for producing key refined products remains offline. The Iranians have made clear that they are not going to give up the nuclear program nor the Strait of Hormuz. We spoke with our friend John Dizard this week and he wonders why the Trump Administration is refusing to begin planning for rationing for key refined products.

“One reason why bank credit statistics look so good is that the markets remain awash in liquidity, forcing asset prices up and default rates down,” notes Whalen. "We estimate that there are now $3 trillion in unused loan commitments to non-depository financial institutions."

China bought a record-breaking amount of silver in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, driven by intense demand for solar manufacturing and retail investment. China imported approximately 1,536 to 1,626 tonnes of silver in the first quarter, confirming our view that silver is likely to continue to outperform gold significantly this year.

Institutional investors can and do abide by limits on redemptions for private equity and credit, at least for a while. Retail investors cannot and do not, and will run when there are clear signs of distress and illiquidity. Remember the deposit run at Silicon Valley Bank.

Tech bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) dropped dramatically last week, but less than the stock had fallen in January or in December of last year. Cisco Systems (CSCO) tumbled 11%–12.3% on a downbeat outlook, making it one of the largest single-day drops last week. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 20% since January due to investor fatigue over the absurd AI narrative. Are these stocks a buy on the bounce?

Large-cap tech stocks experienced the worst week since November, causing a split market where value-oriented stocks are gaining attention, while tech stocks and crypto tokens are being liquidated. Equity managers are rotating out of tech and into everything else, creating a cosmic imbalance that is difficult for the non-tech equity market to absorb.

GS had a remarkable year in 2025, as shown in the table below. It is good to see the firm back on track after the disastrous experiment in retail banking and credit cards. This is really one of the few pages in the GS public disclosure that has any useful information, which is a major reason that the Fed's Y-9C is must reading for analysts of Goldman Sachs.