The Institutional Risk Analyst

The renewed fighting between the US and Iran again jeopardizes global oil supplies, after stockpiles were drained earlier in the conflict, Reuters reports. “We’ve burned through all of the buffers we had. Everything,” one trader told the Financial Times. Energy markets had some slack to absorb the first shock, but that cushion is “smaller and shrinking further.” We continue to be concerned about shortages of refined products and particular grades of petroleum in 2H 2026.

Len Tannenbaum, founder of Tannenbaum Capital, told Bloomberg's Carrol Massar that some BDCs could buckle as the pressure mounts, depending on how leveraged they are, their overall exposure to troubled loans and “how long they’ve swept things under the rug” using such methods as "payment in kind" or PIK to avoid default. “PIK is POOP — Principal On Outstanding Principal — and it doesn’t matter how much, POOP smells,” Tannenbaum said.

This week in “The Wrap,” we feature the top events in Washington and on Wall Street over the past week. The IRA is fishing in Maine this week, but please do watch “The Wrap with Chris Whalen” on The Julia LaRoche Show next Saturday on YouTube to catch our discussion of what’s hot and what’s not in the world of finance and investing. This week we address some reader questions at the end of this comment. June 12, 2026 | Yet another week has gone by and there is still no peace a

The Entropy Trap treats markets the way physicists treat complex systems under stress. It does not begin with a forecast. It begins with measurement: level, velocity, acceleration, correlation, feedback loops, and whether stress is rising or falling. The central claim is simple: we are not in another normal cycle. We are in a structural reorganisation in which the old equilibrium is no longer recovering.

We have updated the WGA Precious Metals Top 25 for June 2026. Many of the gold funds are down for the year, having given up the gains seen in 2026 in the face of triple digit returns for AI related stocks. As we noted last week in “The Wrap,” when AI stocks are soaring and interest rates are rising, precious metals typically retreat. It's all about short-term yields and chasing the shiny object.

Another week goes by and there is still no peace agreement between the US and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and much of the world’s capacity for producing key refined products remains offline. The Iranians have made clear that they are not going to give up the nuclear program nor the Strait of Hormuz. We spoke with our friend John Dizard this week and he wonders why the Trump Administration is refusing to begin planning for rationing for key refined products.

In a system where tax avoidance is a national aspiration, the currency must inflate continuously and at varying rates to accommodate the Treasury’s cash needs. Last week in "The Wrap," we noted that real gasoline prices, adjusted for inflation, are actually quite low. We also predicted that inflation could touch double digit rates later this year as a result of the US-Israeli war with Iran, but the big driver of inflation remains the federal debt.

In the past five trading days, gold has moved up almost 3% but silver has done even better. Physical supply constraints in India and Asia are pushing prices for gold and silver higher, illustrating the disconnect between the momentum driven financial markets in the US and Europe and the physical market in Asia.

On Capitol Hill, Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee this week to consider his nomination as Fed Chairman. Warsh reiterated that Fed “monetary policy independence is essential.” But he got some rough questions from Democrats, especially ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) She asked whether he will be a “sock puppet” manipulated by President Trump. Warren called Warsh “uniquely ill-suited for the job as Fed chair,” but frankly Warren is uniquely unquali

Bank earnings this week have been mostly what we expected, with income up, credit loss rates continuing to trend lower and most banks refusing to provide additional disclosure on private credit exposures. As the private credit mess proceeds in the weeks and months ahead, a lot of the “debt” in these deals will turn to equity – which is what it should’ve been all along.

The past week has been a decidedly volatile period, but with spreads widening in response to growing concern about the US fiscal trainwreck ℅ the US Congress and President Donald Trump. Even the possible intervention of the Federal Reserve Board does not impress a market about to see the largest IPO ever in Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

“Since the start of the Iran war, base rates are up 48 bps and spreads (the six rates I use) are up 80 bps, for a total impact of 128 bps. The impact on EBITDA to support equity is roughly $5 billion per bp. At an EBITDA multiple of 8-1, each bp reduces equity valuations by $40 billion. SIMPLY STATED, the “cost” of the war now stands at $5.12 trillion in reduced “fair value” of US investments. ARE WE HAVING FUN YET?”

In this week’s edition of “The Wrap,” we feature our view of the top-ten key events in Washington and on Wall Street over the past week. Don’t forget to watch “The Wrap with Chris Whalen” on The Julia LaRoche Show every Saturday on YouTube to catch our discussion of what’s hot and what’s not in the world of finance and investing. March 20, 2026 | Gold and silver prices continued to pare gains from the past 90 days, even as deliverable supplies of both metals are shrinking

When we saw the vicious backwardation in oil prices this week, and the equally steep slope down in the price of oil going into the out months, we were struck by this dichotomy. Likewise the relative stability in the US Treasury market, with the ten-year note still confined to that 4.10-4.20% range that has prevailed all year and long-before the new conflict with Iran, suggests that the current kerfuffle in the media is overdone.

The year 2025 was another year of magical thinking ℅ Donald Trump, a man whose mere presence in the room causes everyone else to descend to their most base level. Trump came to Washington as a president who spurned convention and embraced crypto currencies. He rejected New Deal regulation and encouraging greed and self-interest in a way not seen since the years following the Civil War. The impact on financial markets is profound and may continue for some time.

APO CEO Marc Rowan has argued that private markets are superior to public markets due to consistent excess returns (1.5% higher annually), better diversification, and lower risk than traditionally assumed. The debacle around OWL and other examples suggests that Rowan is mistaken and that public markets are superior to private schemes.

With the sharp move upward in gold and silver prices, and growing concerns about the stability of the dollar and US financial markets, investor interest in precious metals is increasing dramatically. Despite the big price movements seen in 2025, we believe that the appreciation of gold against the fiat currencies and worthless crypto tokens is in the early stages. Remember, bitcoin is a fraud, nothing more.

US banks and nonbanks are entering a period of increased uncertainty in terms of earnings and rising credit costs, yet another reason why financial stocks are retreating. We published a comment on the risks to banks from loans to private equity funds (“Does Private Credit Hurt Bank Stocks?”). Bank credit costs have been so low for so long that they have nowhere to go but up.

This week in “The Wrap,” we report in summary fashion about the latest events in Washington and Wall Street this week. The Trump Administration departed from Davos with a variety of “wins,” but there was nothing substantive about housing affordability or really anything else.

President Donald Trump, Bill Pulte and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have apparently met a couple of times in recent weeks to consider policy initiatives for spurring housing. Meanwhile, the GSEs have begun to buy and/or retain mortgage assets in an effort to push down mortgage rates, an effort that is unlikely to have much effect.