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The Institutional Risk Analyst


Update: Is GSE Release Really on Hold?
In an earlier issue of The IRA, we noted that one reason that the GSE shares may be suffering is that the Trump Administration is apparently wrestling with how to take Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of conservatorship.
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Jul 295 min read


Post-Trumpian Fintech Bounce: How High? How Long?
At one point last year, HOOD was up several hundred percent, but has given back much of those gains. Yet the leaders of our finance group have outperformed the broad market.
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May 126 min read


WGA Releases Q1 2025 Bank Industry Survey | Higher for Longer May Throttle Deposit Growth
Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns
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Feb 282 min read


Trumpian Wave Threatens Key Markets
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now reports up to National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett.
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Feb 207 min read


Big Losses in Commercial Real Estate & PE in 2025?
Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.
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Jan 136 min read


Chairman Powell Jumps the Shark
The markets got their rate cut over the past six months and now may have to give some of that back.
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Oct 7, 20248 min read


The Bull Case for Large Banks
If you believe that there is no recession coming in 2025, what is the logical response from an informed investment professional?
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Oct 1, 20246 min read


IRA Bank Book Q3 2024 Industry Survey
The Q3 interest rate rally still leaves the industry with a negative
capital position since the average securities yield is only 3%
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Sep 16, 20242 min read


New & Old Names in Nonbank Finance
In dollar terms, the moves in 2023 were tiny vs the post March rally in 2020.
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Aug 21, 20247 min read


Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC
Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.
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Jun 23, 20249 min read


Update: BMO + Bank of the West = ?
BMO arguably has the weakest reserve position among the large Canadian banks....
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Jun 17, 20246 min read


Will Credit Risk Transfer Save the Banks? Are MSRs Overvalued?
How much in synthetic CRT transactions will be done in 2024? Our best guess is many hundreds of billions globally...
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Jun 12, 20249 min read


Faux Bear Raids on OZK and AX? But More Trouble Ahead for CRE Equity
We remind readers that unrealized losses on securities are still a bigger problem for banks than CRE.
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Jun 7, 20247 min read


Inside the Private Credit Trade
Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.
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Jun 4, 20246 min read


Inflation & CRE Deflation Too? UMB Financial + Heartland = ?
With a budget deficit projected to be $1.8 trillion in 2024, the odds of the FOMC actually controlling inflation are pretty low.
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May 28, 20247 min read


Interest Rates, Deficits & Inflation
We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025.
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May 24, 20246 min read


MBA Aftermath; Profile: Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
When NYC is forced to recognize reality, it will already be too late to avoid another fiscal crisis.
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May 22, 20247 min read


Yellen FSOC Punts on Mortgage Servicers; WGA Bottom 25 Banks
Are there bank bargains down in the cellar waiting to be discovered?
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May 13, 20247 min read


TCBI v Ginnie Mae Goes to Trial | Outlook for Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
McCargo's actions and the fact that the case has not been dismissed in its entirety is very unhelpful given current market conditions.
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Apr 21, 20247 min read


Top-Five Banks: Q1 '24 Earnings Setup
We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...
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Mar 19, 20247 min read
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