September 16, 2024 | Premium Service | The Institutional Risk Analyst has released a new report, The IRA Bank Book for Q3 2024 (ISBN 978-0-692-09756-4). Subscribers to the Premium Service may download the latest report below. Stand alone copies of the report are available for purchase in the IRA online store.
As market yields fall in anticipation of a change in Fed policy, a growing number of banks are taking low-yielding securities to the curb for sale. The mark-to-market losses for the banking industry have improved as market yields have fallen in Q3, but the net capital number for the industry remains negative. We are back where we were at the start of 2023. The chart below shows the mark-to-market for the banking industry at the end of Q2 2024.
Source: FDIC/WGA LLC
KeyCorp (KEY)Â and Truist Financial (TFC)Â are some of the banks that have taken large losses in Q2 2024 and KEY may sell more in the second half of 2024. While realized losses hurt earnings, the benefit of reinvesting proceeds at higher yields are compelling. Meanwhile, JPMorgan (JPM)Â and Goldman Sachs (GS)Â are both guiding analysts lower on earnings as the end of Q3 approaches. Commercial real estate continues to see rising loss rates even as average prices for CRE have begun to stabilize in some markets. The chart below shows net loss for the $1.1 trillion non-farm, non-residential, non-owner occupied CRE bank loan category.
Source: FDIC/WGA LLC
Subscribers may download the new report below.
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