The Institutional Risk Analyst

As we have said consistently, it is better to own the shares of stronger crypto enablers like HOOD and SOFI than the tokens themselves. It is the enablers who profit at the expense of the remaining true greater. We were watching a fascinating conversation with independent technology analyst and advisor Benedict Evans earlier this week and he made the point that serious technologists have largely abandoned crypto as an area of study.

Jim Rickards: False Narratives in Crypto & AI, and the Case for Gold

When Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009, the token and the accompanying blockchain technology was heralded as a new means of exchange and proliferated without much encouragement. It was billed as a replacement for depreciating fiat currencies and the financial system that facilitates the legal tender monopoly of most governments. But instead of being a stable means of exchange and thus an alternative to an ever depreciating fiat dollar, Bitcoin became a vastly profitable sp

As we've noted in the past, owning the share of crypto facilitators such as SOFI or Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is a better trade than owning BTC. We have seen a lot of market participants taking profits and moving to the sidelines, one reason why the markets have not seen an explosion in downside volatility -- yet.

The upsurge in the price of gold during 2025 has surpassed the rate of increase for stocks and crypto tokens, begging the question as to whether the world is headed back to the future in term of money. Yet for most investors and nations, gold remains at the apex of value in terms of monetary assets, with fiat currencies next in line and crypto still occupying the periphery in terms of mediums of exchange.

Why does the US central bank need to pay interest on bank deposits at the Fed? Because we have $35 trillion in public debt. The interest rate on T-bills, bank reserves deposited at the Fed and reverse repurchase agreements (RRPs) issued by the Fed must be roughly the same.

Margin credit in the US reached a new peak last week, FINRA reports. As of the second quarter of 2025, total margin loans in the United States reached a record high of $1.008 trillion vs just $850 billion in April. 

Owners of crypto tokens hold nothing except an option to sell their flutter to a greater fool. The real worry for the future is that another financial debacle — à la FTX — where crypto was revealed to be pure fraud will surprise the markets as burned punters flee their speculations. The fact that crypto prices are increasingly being supported by stock issuance and schemes like perpetual futures contracts (Perps) suggests the end of the game is nigh.

The public mania around stable coins is the latest evidence that humans are incapable of making rational decisions when they are part of a crowd. Long-term, we should view stable coins as marketing tools for large advertisers to acquire and retain customers.

Smaller issuers of stable coins will soon be competing with Verizon (VZN) and JPMorgan (JPM), while platforms offering turnkey coin solutions will multiply like Lantern Flies. 

The intriguing thing about private coin empires is that they are obviously not a positive for existing payment systems, yet neither are they dependent upon crypto. Larger sponsors may be able to create exclusive coin ecosystems without actually touching crypto assets at all. Fiat to AMZN coin, “ZON,” is really all that the sponsor needs.

Researchers at Apple just released a paper that throws cold water on the "reasoning" capabilities of the latest, most powerful large language AI models. In the paper, a team of machine learning experts makes the case that the AI industry is grossly overstating the ability of its top AI models, including OpenAI's o3, Anthropic's Claude 3.7, and Google's Gemini.

The proliferation of low- or no-cost coin systems is ultimately negative for established players in nonbank finance and payments, including the major card issuers, as we discuss below.  Still worried about interchange fees?

The common penny stocks of these two appendages of the state, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are up over 600% in the past year, generating huge gains for the likes of Bill Ackman and John Paulson. Bitcoin is up a paltry 50% LTM. Indeed, much like old fintech stocks such as PayPal (PYPL) and Block Inc (XTZ), bitcoin seems to be losing the special novelty that always seems to drive these manic stories. Is bitcoin now just another boring Wall Street ETF?

So yes, we think that every major bank is going to be integrating crypto at some point. Like I said, we think it’s a technology to update the financial system. And we’ve had conversations with a number of them.

When you buy a crypto currency, you buy an option on finding a greater fool, but nothing more, a transaction that would have provoked contempt in Lincoln’s day.