<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[The Institutional Risk Analyst by Christopher Whalen]]></title><description><![CDATA[News, views and analysis of the global political economy.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/blog</link><generator>RSS for Node</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2026 00:58:26 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/blog-feed.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: Bank Earnings and Oil Prices Soar as War in Middle East Reignites]]></title><description><![CDATA[The renewed fighting between the US and Iran again jeopardizes global oil supplies, after stockpiles were drained earlier in the conflict, Reuters reports. “We’ve burned through all of the buffers we had. Everything,” one trader told the Financial Times. Energy markets had some slack to absorb the first shock, but that cushion is “smaller and shrinking further.”  We continue to be concerned about shortages of refined products and particular grades of petroleum in 2H 2026.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira869</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a5979bb0ff39938e1cd4071</guid><category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 01:27:36 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_af6bc08046b94efb810a5c92d63b7138~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_853,h_483,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Trading Points: Bank Earnings Soar and So Does Market &#38; Credit Risk]]></title><description><![CDATA[In the second quarter of 2026, Morgan Stanley’s margin and other lending balances increased by $3.0 billion (or 9%) sequentially compared to the first quarter. Year-over-year, these loan balances surged by $10.3 billion (or 40%).]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira868</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a57b9368a059921e603290b</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 17:44:52 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_f806400e10c14b64897e8c24933d7e12~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_160,h_148,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Mortgage Notes: Desperately Selling DSCR; Can UWMC Pivot to Stability?]]></title><description><![CDATA[But the greater risk to borrowers and investors is the widely held illusion that the valuations for rental properties grow to the sky.  Take the example of China, where two decades of home price appreciation has been reversed and home prices have now fallen steadily for the past three years. How did this happen? Because the Chinese foolishly imitated the US methodology for tracking home prices, giving their citizens a false image of the actual conditions in the housing market.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira867</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a53eb3d1f3b88f8a4ecdb4c</guid><category><![CDATA[Residential Mortgage]]></category><category><![CDATA[Nonbank Finance]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2026 21:18:46 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/nsplsh_ec4f671373604c979c41e5dd7eb4c3f0~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: War in the Gulf, Warsh Stands Pat, Democrats Seethe ]]></title><description><![CDATA[Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) has already highlighted some of the most egregious instances of Trump, his family, and members of his administration using their positions of power to enrich themselves and do favors for their billionaire buddies at the expense of American taxpayers. Murphy has written a script for a Democratic House to use in impeaching President Trump.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira866</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a5030fccb673b1177c7478b</guid><category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2026 00:54:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_1d46b816563e46008e117c0f8d6c5a58~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_855,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Consumer Lenders: ALLY, AXP, AX, Barclays, COF, HAPN, SOFI, SYF  ]]></title><description><![CDATA[One reason that we believe that consumer loss rates are so low is that more aggressive lenders like HAPN and many others are ready and willing to provide unsecured financing to consumers. Given the signs of stress we see building in the private residential loan channel, we'd be more inclined to take the short side of HAPN -- especially if they are so anxious to take risk in home improvement lending. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira865</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a4aa0ed0e6d4656949b98de</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 05 Jul 2026 23:54:05 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/nsplsh_f37eb1d777964abdad48abddf37bda69~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: Gold Rebounds, AI Stocks Slump &#38; Trump Takes Crypto Profits]]></title><description><![CDATA[Len Tannenbaum, founder of Tannenbaum Capital, told Bloomberg's Carrol Massar that some BDCs could buckle as the pressure mounts, depending on how leveraged they are, their overall exposure to troubled loans and “how long they’ve swept things under the rug” using such methods as "payment in kind" or PIK to avoid default.



“PIK is POOP — Principal On Outstanding Principal — and it doesn’t matter how much, POOP smells,” Tannenbaum said.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira864</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a469058b176a354da80dade</guid><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:41:35 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_82ec3cfb031f42aebc7e6f18a74bc418~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_621,h_525,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Mortgage Notes: Getting Consumer Credit Scores Right]]></title><description><![CDATA[Consumers and policy makers will probably be surprised to learn how imprecise the world of aggregating consumer data remains in 2026, almost 40 years since the first standardized consumer credit score, known as the FICO Score, was published in the United States in 1989. The fact that several new scores have been published by the aggregators of consumer data has not improved the situation appreciably. How can the consumer finance industry and the regulatory agencies get this right?]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira863</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a44064351416e35e786adaa</guid><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><category><![CDATA[Residential Mortgage]]></category><pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2026 18:51:17 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a94034c1ea2a436da066828d0ac997e9.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Size and Risk/Return: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman vs Charles Schwab]]></title><description><![CDATA[The major Wall Street investment firms tracked by the WGA Bank Top 50 followed the industry trend and reported lower credit costs in Q1 2026. Income was higher due to the brisk activity in the capital markets in the first three months of the year, but asset returns and funding costs fell significantly. We suspect that both trends will be partially reversed in Q2 2026 results and very visible in 2H 2026. Suffice to see that Elon Musk was lucky indeed to get his IPO for SpaceX (SPCX) done.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira862</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a41520e97220de384b175d9</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><category><![CDATA[Market Risk]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 28 Jun 2026 21:42:34 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/nsplsh_20479ea279d947bc85fb0698f67f275a~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: Private Credit, Agentic Trading AI Stocks and DSCR Loans]]></title><description><![CDATA[Several major private credit firms capped investor withdrawals this week, as an accelerated exit wave hit the industry. Firms typically limited redemptions to their customary 5% quarterly threshold. The Ares Strategic Income Fund capped withdrawals at 5% after receiving requests to redeem 14.4% of shares. And Apollo's flagship $26 billion retail-focused fund curbed redemptions at 5% after investors attempted to cash out 16.8% of their holdings.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira861</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a3e5c7f740673c683585082</guid><category><![CDATA[Market Risk]]></category><category><![CDATA[Residential Mortgage]]></category><category><![CDATA[AI]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:34:39 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_f457cde85bc345a8a9231c0e61bc6ea8~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Fred Ramberg on AI, Agentic Trading and the Necessary Past]]></title><description><![CDATA[Anybody focused on investing not concerned about agentic trading is fooling themselves. And it comes from a discussion I had with one of my sons about what may be happening inside virtual chat rooms that now exist that humans cannot enter. Only AI agents can enter these chat rooms. And they work with each other, not necessarily on trading and on strategies, but they work with each other on numbers and issues. Humans are barred from these chat rooms. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira860</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a3ae71ee48ba4122ae7ec3e</guid><category><![CDATA[AI]]></category><category><![CDATA[Market Risk]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 24 Jun 2026 01:50:36 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_a04ced0fe1fd4a49b07321da2ed63453~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_345,h_345,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Earnings Setup: Top Seven Banks | BAC, C, JPM, TFC, PNC, USB &#38; WFC]]></title><description><![CDATA[In Q1 2026, the top seven banks continued to see asset returns decline, but funding costs fell even more. Net interest margin (NIM) decreased from the prior quarter to 3.31 percent, but loan growth driven by AI nonbank lending continued, rising 7.1 percent from the same quarter in 2025. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira859</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a38376c6eab84e606077c99</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><pubDate>Mon, 22 Jun 2026 01:15:25 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_851ea86f21ea41bea98d8cd4433263e9~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_975,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: AI Stocks Swoon, Warsh Sets Tasks &#38; Private Credit Festers]]></title><description><![CDATA[The FOMC meeting this week with Chairman Kevin Warsh was about what we expected. Less is more in terms of forward guidance, maybe pivot to even less talk MT. Models being renovated, personnel evaluated. Maybe the end of the idiotic dot plots is in sight? No guidance will be forthcoming from the Chairman. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira858</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a34814d217d21f7fb608b61</guid><category><![CDATA[Market Risk]]></category><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 19 Jun 2026 01:16:36 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_d54830d8ae5749e88006f4ca1bd7aff0~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_465,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Mortgage Notes: UWMC Loses Two Harbors; Fed Researchers on MSRs]]></title><description><![CDATA[The contest to see who will acquire the mortgage REIT Two Harbors (TWO) seems to have ended in a defeat for United Wholesale Mortgage Corp (UWMC) and a win for CrossCountry Mortgage, the #2 retail lender in the US behind Rocket Companies (RKT). The TWO Board of Directors unanimously recommended a vote for the proposed transaction with CrossCountry Mortgage at the Special Meeting on June 23, 2026.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira857</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a31a795c6603f7917b48e5c</guid><category><![CDATA[Residential Mortgage]]></category><category><![CDATA[Market Risk]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2026 12:10:28 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_c68be23f93ce4d75bded65fcbc542726~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[John Dizard: Energy Shortages Loom Despite Peace Deal]]></title><description><![CDATA[We already have diesel prices that are going to be going up. If not hyperbolically, you know, very, very aggressively. And in the case of the Group III lubricants and even Group II lubricants that I've been obsessing about, we have an availability problem starting now.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira856</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a2f3eb4963b3c1436ea6191</guid><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:39:47 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/nsplsh_9c1fa424b8604b069934afe9dea5f59d~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: Iran War Continues, Warsh Ponders "Trimmed-Mean Inflation" ]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week in “The Wrap,” we feature the top events in Washington and on Wall Street over the past week. The IRA is fishing in Maine this week, but please do watch “The Wrap with Chris Whalen” on The Julia LaRoche Show next Saturday on YouTube to catch our discussion of what’s hot and what’s not in the world of finance and investing. This week we address some reader questions at the end of this comment. June 12, 2026 | Yet another week has gone by and there is still no peace agreement between...]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira855</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a2b5f6916a9a8229e032849</guid><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><category><![CDATA[Silver]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 09:25:31 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_c589d227ba0c446b81184fb109d16a23~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_947,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Mickey Maini: The Entropy Trap and Growing Market Stress]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Entropy Trap treats markets the way physicists treat complex systems under stress. It does not begin with a forecast. It begins with measurement: level, velocity, acceleration, correlation, feedback loops, and whether stress is rising or falling. The central claim is simple: we are not in another normal cycle. We are in a structural reorganisation in which the old equilibrium is no longer recovering.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira854</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a286eadbcf454bfefdebeb9</guid><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:54:20 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_2a5a2a720ca04cd780b1f2eb6f76b5a8~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_574,h_766,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Precious Metals Move Sideways as Crypto and AI Bubbles Deflate]]></title><description><![CDATA[We have updated the WGA Precious Metals Top 25 for June 2026. Many of the gold funds are down for the year, having given up the gains seen in 2026 in the face of triple digit returns for AI related stocks.  As we noted last week in “The Wrap,” when AI stocks are soaring and interest rates are rising, precious metals typically retreat.  It's all about short-term yields and chasing the shiny object. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira853</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a2582a3bcf454bfefd8b323</guid><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><category><![CDATA[AI]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 07 Jun 2026 15:13:51 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_232dd8e05b6f498282d514fc4b7cfce6~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_947,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: Bessent Kicks Ass, Bitcoin Collapses, AI Soars or Not]]></title><description><![CDATA[Another week goes by and there is still no peace agreement between the US and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and much of the world’s capacity for producing key refined products remains offline. 
The Iranians have made clear that they are not going to give up the nuclear program nor the Strait of Hormuz. We spoke with our friend John Dizard this week and he wonders why the Trump Administration is refusing to begin planning for rationing for key refined products.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira852</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a229999367ed35011d7c893</guid><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><category><![CDATA[Crypto]]></category><category><![CDATA[AI]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 05 Jun 2026 10:18:43 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_316d9c17d9654513a14a29a101129322~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_700,h_394,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[AI, Debt &#38; the Death of Fear]]></title><description><![CDATA[In fact, we expect the war with Iran to result in higher interest rates, higher inflation and rationing of key petroleum byproducts in coming months, something that nobody in the Trump Administration seems willing to discuss. If Washington was populated by serious people, the federal government would already be making plans for rationing key refined products.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira851</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a1f609bd7053c3c7ea33c47</guid><category><![CDATA[Market Risk]]></category><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2026 23:51:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/nsplsh_a2e004d42b6d4d03a20dc34b552616ab~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Bank Stocks Surge on AI Wave]]></title><description><![CDATA[“One reason why bank credit statistics look so good is that the markets remain awash in liquidity, forcing asset prices up and default rates down,” notes Whalen. "We estimate that there are now $3 trillion in unused loan commitments to non-depository financial institutions."]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira850</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a1d50497b6630756eeebea3</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><category><![CDATA[AI]]></category><pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 10:33:36 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_e12f67bbbc3b4050a9d49e25762d2a22~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_711,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item></channel></rss>