<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[The Institutional Risk Analyst by Christopher Whalen]]></title><description><![CDATA[News, views and analysis of the global political economy.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/blog</link><generator>RSS for Node</generator><lastBuildDate>Fri, 16 Oct 2026 01:01:24 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/blog-feed.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: Trump Promises Dividends, Inflation Rises and Home Prices Slump]]></title><description><![CDATA[This week, President Donald Trump repeated his promise to give adult U.S. citizens a $5,000 cash "dividend" during a campaign event on October 12, 2026, reiterating that the payout is contingent upon Republicans maintaining control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira898</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6ad119578050fb34b64fd40f</guid><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2026 20:22:03 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_30efc257f58e4339b7fe83fbe2591fed~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_823,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Mortgage Notes: Falling Volumes, Rising Defaults; Will UWMC Survive?]]></title><description><![CDATA[UWMC must completely focus any partial redemption efforts on cleaning up Oaktree's senior Series A-1 shares first before it can touch junior tiers of preferred capital. Shareholders widely expect UWMC to sweep its core free cash flow exclusively toward these preferred redemptions in the coming years to remove Oaktree's high-coupon burden, but the available cash flow may not even be sufficient to cover the dividend.  That is, Oaktree owns UWMC. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira897</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6acead624d72865fb01620de</guid><category><![CDATA[Residential Mortgage]]></category><category><![CDATA[Nonbank Finance]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 01:44:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_d9fb8a6b396c41afbc6933fef1234bed~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_465,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Joe Costello on Top Down Democracy; WGA Precious Metals Top 25]]></title><description><![CDATA[Bernie poses as being from the outside, like the quote unquote "socialists," yet all have a hard time really going against the Democratic establishment. Once they win, they want to pal back with DC, that’s why Bernie Sanders is just a ridiculous figure. He's one of the most ridiculous figures in American politics, which is saying something these days.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira896</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6acbe70f7ea08a33d77caa29</guid><category><![CDATA[AI]]></category><category><![CDATA[Silver]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2026 20:30:05 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_270532427c694e79b81f9cd1ad7a1133~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_180,h_250,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Trading Points: Winners &#38; Losers in an Inflated World]]></title><description><![CDATA[How long will the wave of energy inflation coming towards the industrial nations last? Will this unanticipated surge inflation event cause consumers, companies and even nations to default? Below we ponder some asset allocation themes for subscribers to the Premium Service of The Institutional Risk Analyst as we prepare for our quarterly call on Thursday after the market close. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira895</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6ac54bdb0b98fc3756b59498</guid><category><![CDATA[Market Risk]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 07 Oct 2026 12:47:51 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_ea04e2eefe7d4c8e88bc2fca8d7c6b32~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_780,h_606,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Bitcoin's future will be decided by how the dollar is repaired, not by bitcoin]]></title><description><![CDATA[So bitcoin is paid for two things: disorder, and inclusion. It is not paid for order that excludes it. That is a very different claim from the ones usually made for and against bitcoin. Its supporters say it wins because governments fail. Its critics say it loses because governments prevail. Both miss the most likely case, in which governments prevail and choose gold.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira894</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6ac0f9452291ee73d35c0e01</guid><category><![CDATA[Crypto]]></category><category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category><pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 2026 19:15:03 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_ba5e01cd261e4fe0a9bfff73cea8ef86~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_472,h_733,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Wall Street Trims Guidance as Warsh Normalizes Policy | GS, AMP, SCHW, MS, RJF, SF, HOOD]]></title><description><![CDATA[When we consider the track of interest rates during the term of President Donald Trump, it is hard to make the case that the Powell FOMC was not giving the White House everything they wanted and more. Now, however, the US central bank seems to be headed for a policy stance that is closer to neutral than accommodative. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira893</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6abd72397908d26646efafd0</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Market Risk]]></category><pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2026 13:07:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_e2e93c05a0044f2a87ecc77faaaf967c~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_465,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[How Fast Will Consumer Credit Tank? | ALLY, AX, AXP, BCS, COF, HAPN, SOFI, SYF ]]></title><description><![CDATA[If you look at the abysmal poll numbers for President Donald Trump in terms of his handling of the economy, you can seen why all banks and particularly the consumer lenders are trading so weakly at present. Most of the banks in this group and, indeed, the whole WGA Bank 50 group have reported excellent earnings, but it does not matter. Mr. Market is focused on year-end 2026 and 2027, one reason why we think the FOMC will be cutting the target for federal funds by Spring. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira892</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6ab867750f6358bffa0a2920</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 27 Sep 2026 14:11:35 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_b129b144718e4c1ba3f92c4ea14a90a2~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_665,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[John Dizard: Higher Prices for Energy, Consumer Products &#38; Food]]></title><description><![CDATA[Iran has not been defeated. We have to admit that. We have to admit, oh, actually, they've done very well. And it has to be admitted by people in authority. So those people in authority can then negotiate with their Gulf counterparts, including the Saudis. That’s how this thing gets fixed. Now, doing this before the October 27 Israeli election is going to be difficult to impossible, and also before the U.S. midterms, which means that before the U.S. midterms, things are going to get  quite  bad.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira891</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6ab2aefda9cd81127b62dab8</guid><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><category><![CDATA[Energy]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 23 Sep 2026 03:04:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/nsplsh_7762e9aeff08451fa17e9428b98df703~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Bank Stocks Battered by Trump, Inflation and Interest Rates | BAC, C, JPM, WFC, USB, TFS, PNC]]></title><description><![CDATA[Coming out of Q2 2026 earnings, JPMorgan (JPM) was the leader in all respects, toping $5 trillion in assets and generating net income that has pushed the bank over 1.5% return on assets (ROA). Following JPM was PNC Financial (PNC) and USB, both of which are showing solid growth in terms of asset returns and stock prices. But the fact is that the top seven banks are going nowhere in terms of the equity market, as shown in the chart below.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira890</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6aaf2475cac12583ca2440b9</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 20 Sep 2026 13:38:41 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_73fff5cf4ca347428bc8b3ed32b9cf4a~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_892,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Trading Points: Gold vs Dollars; Fintech Stocks vs AI]]></title><description><![CDATA[We received a number of comments on our discussion with David Kotok last week (“David Kotok: China, the Dollar and Bretton Woods 2.0”), but one of the most interesting observations came from veteran Bahamas-based gold fund manager Henry Smyth, who we interviewed last May (“Interview: Henry Smyth on the Return of Gold as Global Reserve Asset”):]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira889</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6aa9566c80158fe9e81d80aa</guid><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><category><![CDATA[Nonbank Finance]]></category><category><![CDATA[AI]]></category><pubDate>Tue, 15 Sep 2026 17:02:53 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/11062b_fa343183d76744bd91bd859b57701f29~mv2_d_6756_4509_s_4_2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Mickey Maini: The Three Consents]]></title><description><![CDATA[When the short end obeys and the long end shrugs, that is not policy talking. That is premium, charging by the day. And the plan carries a twist it did not price: the investment boom that is supposed to pay the mortgage is, for now, bidding against the Treasury in its own bond market, hundreds of billions of buildout raised from the same institutional pool that must absorb the wall. The exit ramp charges a toll on the road that leads to it.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira888</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6aa55fe0dd58bcb58cb742a9</guid><category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category><category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 13 Sep 2026 15:21:00 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_ba5e01cd261e4fe0a9bfff73cea8ef86~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_472,h_733,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[EverBank + Washington Federal = ?]]></title><description><![CDATA[The first point to make is that neither of these banks is a particularly good financial performer. WAFD is a bottom quartile performer vs Peer Group One and has reported a lot of noise of late in areas like securities losses.  WAFD makes its way in life as a small regional bank by keeping low expenses. When we visited the bank years ago during our time leading bank ratings at KBRA, the CEO talked about his predecessor turning off every other lightbulb in the bank’s Seattle offices to save money.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira887</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6aa150109e37f8058f8315d9</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 09 Sep 2026 13:27:40 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_00a86470916243638669c98c8cec8529~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_735,h_583,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[David Kotok: China, the Dollar and Bretton Woods 2.0]]></title><description><![CDATA[The difference between the Western markets that settle  predominantly in cash and Asian markets where physical delivery is the  norm is fundamental. A growing number of global central banks are moving their physical gold out of the US because of the erratic behavior of Donald Trump. They fear expropriation of their gold by a future government in Washington.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira886</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a9c9097cdf183e0230caf72</guid><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 06 Sep 2026 19:50:33 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_034278c77e87442fb02e3ec489f8d76f~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Gold, Dollars &#38; Financial Repression]]></title><description><![CDATA[When the price of gold rises what is really happening is that the value of fiat currencies is falling. The rout ongoing in the bonds of the various industrial nations suggests that the dollar and all of its subsidiary currencies are in big trouble. Yet none of these democratically elected governments are willing to take steps to arrest the decline in their credit standing, namely raising taxes and reducing public spending.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira885</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a985512ac46fc7946e71a07</guid><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 19:29:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_bc7f35bd82db44b0a6e084fb9ee88dde~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_875,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Bank Income Surges &#38; Market Risk Rises]]></title><description><![CDATA[Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett notes that it is imperative for the Bessent/Warsh combo to stop higher US  Treasury yields, since long duration trades are working ”too well.” We view such talk as wishful thinking from the Sell Side of the market. There is no way for the Treasury to force LT yields down, thus the only alternative is for the Fed to 1) raise ST interest rates and 2) restart quantitative easing (QE), an eventuality that will signal surrender on the fight against inflation.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira884</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a945833a5d18384b2b2d7f1</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Residential Mortgage]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 30 Aug 2026 17:43:45 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_919b22ff91234bdea7ef301c8dca60bc~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_691,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Mortgage Notes: Pulte Decides; GSE Repurchase Claims and DSCR Fraud]]></title><description><![CDATA[Federal Housing Finance Director William Pulte reappeared on X this past week, promising “decisions” on highly technical areas like loan level pricing adjustments (LLPAs) for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  But could director Pulte expound further on just why LLPAs need to be changed at this point in the home price cycle? After all, most home prices are falling. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira883</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a8deed91d0590986fff897c</guid><category><![CDATA[Residential Mortgage]]></category><category><![CDATA[Nonbank Finance]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:29:57 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_7588e445b49c430e92d188f5b60c2ec3~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_678,h_452,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Trump: Buybacks, Budget Deficits &#38; Credibility]]></title><description><![CDATA[The fact that Secretary Bessent felt the need to make an announcement of increased bond buybacks in front to the 20-year auction suggests that the Treasury is expecting more weak auctions going forward. How else do we explain Bessent’s behavior? But more important, when will President Trump and Secretary Bessent stop pretending that the situation in the Treasury debt market is not a problem? ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira882</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a8ae8974e12adafbf7caa4c</guid><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 23 Aug 2026 13:07:14 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_bd3a0cc7068b4ed5b430507952cf0abc~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_646,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Macro Notes: Bond Yields, Inflation, Credibility &#38; Gold]]></title><description><![CDATA[As the war with Iran continues to fester, we suspect that there will eventually be a majority on the Federal Open Market Committee to raise short-term interest rates – whether or not Warsh joins the majority or even votes for the move. With the Treasury running a fiscal deficit of 6% of GDP, we think the FOMC has little hope of slowing inflation but may soon be dealing with a slowing economy -- this despite the massive fiscal stimulus.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira881</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a8597f3c6a5e80c131f61d7</guid><category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 19 Aug 2026 14:35:39 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_2fc5464721944dac99c6b82ea95fd9f9~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Did a Hedge Kill United Wholesale Mortgage? Really?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Some observers think that United Wholesale Mortgage Corp (UWMC) collapsed into the arms of Oaktree Capital Management because they erroneously hedged Two Harbors, a company they ultimately did not buy.  But this is wrong. UWMC collapsed because the CEO, Mat Ishbia, extracted hundreds of millions of dollars in cash from a company that was never really profitable. UWMC was run for volume, not profits. Indeed, his aggressive strategy compressed profits across the entire mortgage industry.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira880</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a7f550062cc0da001db8b5f</guid><category><![CDATA[Residential Mortgage]]></category><category><![CDATA[Nonbank Finance]]></category><pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 13:27:53 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/11062b_98d6ac3ae56649d09b7a9ea82ada01ea~mv2.jpeg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[777 Partners and the End of Private Credit]]></title><description><![CDATA[People in the private credit trade will tell you that raising new money is almost impossible. Why? Because there are growing signs of contagion in the insurance sector after years of dubious business practices by insurers controlled by private credit firms. As details of some of these situations emerge, we suspect that the mainstream media will become more engaged.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira879</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a7ce4b13637842029d17484</guid><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><category><![CDATA[Insurance]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 22:00:29 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_892f2ab39a8f489abbec882c9dbabcdc~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item></channel></rss>