<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[The Institutional Risk Analyst by Christopher Whalen]]></title><description><![CDATA[News, views and analysis of the global political economy.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/blog</link><generator>RSS for Node</generator><lastBuildDate>Mon, 18 May 2026 16:04:15 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/blog-feed.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><item><title><![CDATA[What Does a Smaller Fed Balance Sheet Mean for Inflation &#38; Interest Rates?]]></title><description><![CDATA[We all need to remember that shrinking the Treasury portion of the Fed balance sheet is the easy part. The $2 trillion in notional amount of MBS held in SOMA, which now has an effective duration that is much, much bigger than the rest of the portfolio combined, requires some subtlety. The good news is that the agencies and Ginnie Mae are thinking about a potential Fed MBS swap with Treasury. Wall Street can make it all happen and profit handsomely by selling a lot of “AAA” rated CMOs. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira846</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a09eb962fd8b3b696940790</guid><category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category><category><![CDATA[Residential Mortgage]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 17 May 2026 17:17:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_565aa5f305a14828aecbb495695554bf~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_904,h_716,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: Silver Soars, Warsh Confirmed &#38; 30-Year Bond Tops 5%]]></title><description><![CDATA[China bought a record-breaking amount of silver in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, driven by intense demand for solar manufacturing and retail investment. China imported approximately 1,536 to 1,626 tonnes of silver in the first quarter, confirming our view that silver is likely to continue to outperform gold significantly this year.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira845</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a061d7e5c9a06229cab4168</guid><category><![CDATA[AI]]></category><category><![CDATA[Silver]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2026 10:21:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/cffc3e22857c42d580147966d9c2c8c6.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Tale of Two Banks: Ameriprise Financial &#38; Bread Financial Holdings]]></title><description><![CDATA[AMP is one of the highest valued banks in the WGA Bank Top 50 test group, currently just below 7x book value. Last year and in 2024, AMP touched 9x book value because of the strong growth in the bank’s core advisory business. The stock has traded off because of fears that AI will displace investment managers and a more general rotation away from financials after last year’s blazing performance.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira844</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a0507d5e8ad7aab1e604ff5</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Nonbank Finance]]></category><pubDate>Thu, 14 May 2026 13:31:30 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_c9e0cc28411c48c280255ba621f45af3~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_839,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Who is the Next Countrywide Financial? PennyMac, Rocket &#38; UWMC]]></title><description><![CDATA[The aggressive behavior of some issuers is distorting pricing for loans in the secondary market and may be creating the circumstances for the next systemic “surprise” in the nonbank sector. To us, Exhibit A in the category of a potential nonbank default event is United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC), aka “Countrywide II.” ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira843</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a008f3eecab90113756a74d</guid><category><![CDATA[Nonbank Finance]]></category><category><![CDATA[Residential Mortgage]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2026 16:09:03 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_b0716cd922324731acd1b4358758d575~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_300,h_168,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: AI and Metals Surge, Dollar Gyrates and Private Credit Sinks]]></title><description><![CDATA[In the past five trading days, gold has moved up almost 3% but silver has done even better. Physical supply constraints in India and Asia are pushing prices for gold and silver higher, illustrating the disconnect between the momentum driven financial markets in the US and Europe and the physical market in Asia.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira842</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69fd04694f7ebdc9f6a7955a</guid><category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 08 May 2026 00:54:55 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_804fe996d84d4b25969f54f1cf05077b~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_837,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[WGA Bank Top 50 Q2 2026 | Bank Failures and Mortgage Bankers]]></title><description><![CDATA[Of course, in the muddled markets at present, there are a number of low-scoring banks which have done relatively well in recent weeks. The parent company of tiny Merchants Bank of Indiana, Merchants Bancorp (MBIN), for example, saw its stock price rise significantly in early 2026, 2x the S&#38;P 500 over the past year, driven primarily by its inclusion in a major index and strong financial performance. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira841</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69f791f47b1c42fb24f884f9</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 03 May 2026 19:29:58 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_e9920baa78fc41f38a782eb9f8692df0~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: FOMC Rejects Rate Cut; Mag7+ Dominates Equity Markets]]></title><description><![CDATA[One aspect of the Powell press conference that has received too little attention was Powell's comments about Warsh possibly replacing Reserve Bank presidents. “That would be the beginning of the end of the Fed’s ability to make monetary policy independently,” he said, but the media did not notice. As we discussed in our interview with Alex Pollock, the 1935 amendments to the Federal Reserve Act made the chairman the CEO of the agency with unilateral power to remove Reserve Bank Presidents.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira840</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69f378286ab422d8287501f4</guid><category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category><pubDate>Thu, 30 Apr 2026 17:22:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_b416e8ea636641a39f86c6bca0bbca2d~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_742,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Trading Points: China, Sulfur &#38; Silver 银]]></title><description><![CDATA[We took some of our profits in gold last month, but will be adding to our positions in silver and related miners not dependent upon acid leaching to produce metal.  We'll leave the second and third-tier arbitrage trades to the big research houses. In addition, we'll also be updating the WGA Bank Top 100 this weekend.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira839</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69f12978ddc36f176232cc03</guid><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><category><![CDATA[Silver]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 2026 00:30:07 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/a7bd75d3d9514064ae12c51fcc16c88c.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Warsh Confirmation Moves Forward; Wells Fargo &#38; Co Update]]></title><description><![CDATA[This change in posture by President Trump opens the way for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed by the Senate perhaps by May 15th. More important, it provides a way for Powell to retire, which opens a second governor seat on the Board.  Big question: Even with the investigation by the DOJ ended, does the Trump White House have the votes to get Warsh confirmed?]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira838</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69eb541cd06bed7d1aa374ca</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2026 11:28:03 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_6bc4996301564f32919e3cb558a7e169~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_711,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: Energy Prices Surge, Stocks Ooze Up, Gold Edges Sideways]]></title><description><![CDATA[On Capitol Hill, Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee this week to consider his nomination as Fed Chairman. Warsh reiterated that Fed “monetary policy independence is essential.” But he got some rough questions from Democrats, especially ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) She asked whether he will be a “sock puppet” manipulated by President Trump. Warren called Warsh “uniquely ill-suited for the job as Fed chair,” but frankly Warren is uniquely unqualified as well. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira837</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69ea5db1b17cf497ceb452ac</guid><category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><pubDate>Thu, 23 Apr 2026 20:18:12 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_f1de8bdbb803408e8f8f9f282094d9f6~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_327,h_154,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[D. Ricardo on Private Credit &#38; the Real Risk to Financial Markets]]></title><description><![CDATA[“Private debt” gating retail investors is the whipping boy du jour, but not the canary in the coal mine, nor the real problem, nor the real risk. Over-investment and malinvestment in things like data centers or unprofitable business models that require cheap money and are based on hype and suspension of common sense, excessive government spending, inflation and currency debasement, populism and socialist rhetoric manifesting itself in real policy and tax decisions, these are the real risks.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira836</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69e4f37d5e3a88e8e09d38b8</guid><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><pubDate>Mon, 20 Apr 2026 11:14:15 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_3a4c07daa5de43f387b849481871762b~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_225,h_225,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: Public Markets Rally; Private Credit Will Become Equity ]]></title><description><![CDATA[Bank earnings this week have been mostly what we expected, with income up, credit loss rates continuing to trend lower and most banks refusing to provide additional disclosure on private credit exposures. As the private credit mess proceeds in the weeks and months ahead, a lot of the “debt” in these deals will turn to equity – which is what it should’ve been all along.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira835</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69e16d3fc4c584cedb05cbe2</guid><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 17 Apr 2026 11:25:37 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_ab1258d332a742c3aa82929bc85fe046~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_691,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Private Credit and Large Banks]]></title><description><![CDATA[As we noted in our discussion with Julie Hyman on Yahoo Finance this week, the big question facing banks in Q1 2026 is disclosure about private credit. The big losers in private credit are not banks, but rather institutional and retail investors who were lured into these wholly unsuitable, structurally illiquid investments by the false public statements made by the sponsors.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira834</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69dfeacffe6e9d8715ce03be</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2026 21:33:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/nsplsh_7738755533356147553641~mv2_d_6384_6636_s_4_2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Mortgage Finance: High Time for IMBs to Become Banks? ]]></title><description><![CDATA[Whereas in the early part of the year, mortgage lenders were looking forward to lower interest rates and higher lending volumes, the start of hostilities in Iran suddenly reversed this narrative. As we discussed this week in our podcast with Julia LaRoche, the war with Iran will likely keep inflation and interest rates elevated for months or years to come. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira833</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69db8ac2515c02011a112775</guid><category><![CDATA[Residential Mortgage]]></category><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 12 Apr 2026 15:21:14 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_5daf383e0a774be495345c80a1c5fc32~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_465,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: Hormuz Still Closed, Home Prices Stagnant to Down]]></title><description><![CDATA[The latest turn of events in Washington has left the Saudis and Israelis profoundly annoyed. The US kicked over the hornets nest in Iran, but now Washington is seeking peace even as the Iranians continue to attack the Gulf states. A few ships carrying LPG for Pakistan have been allowed through the Strait after paying Tehran the extortionate sum of $1 per barrel, payable either in Chinese yuan or bitcoin. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira832</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69d83db84e4fe2e3f72b66e8</guid><category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2026 10:25:25 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_fc8dd2ffb54040eb90dc184f9b3f8ee9~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_513,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Who's The Best Consumer Lender? ALLY, AXP, AX, COF, SOFI, LC, SYF]]></title><description><![CDATA[The average of non-interest income to assets for the more than 100 large banks in Peer Group One is 1% of assets. AXP’s non-interest income was equal to 18% of total assets at the end of 2025, putting the $290 billion asset bank in the 99th percentile of all US banks based on this measure. Add this to astute management and high asset turns and AXP is the premier bank in the US based upon market valuation.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira831</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69d6bb7289f9e676eca1d027</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 08 Apr 2026 22:27:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_10b75f1c83344651b1385c561ac5f355~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_899,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley &#38; the Asset Gatherers ]]></title><description><![CDATA[Many banks, led by the likes of Charles Schwab (SCHW) and Bank of America (BAC), refused to restructure their bond portfolios when interest rates were lower, leaving billions of dollars in potential earnings sitting on the table. As we discuss below, SCHW had a yield on its securities book, which is almost half of the group’s assets, of less than 2% at year-end 2025. Why is this OK?  ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira830</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69d37e8384368b484104eb6e</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Market Risk]]></category><pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2026 12:41:14 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_e039ee892569493e87d997ed8510f45e~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Wrap: Equity Markets Slump, Bitcoin Fades &#38; the Dollar Rebounds]]></title><description><![CDATA[The past week has been a decidedly volatile period, but with spreads widening in response to growing concern about the US fiscal trainwreck ℅ the US Congress and President Donald Trump. Even the possible intervention of the Federal Reserve Board does not impress a market about to see the largest IPO ever in Elon Musk’s SpaceX.]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira829</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69cf8caf70c127bc4ede7822</guid><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category><category><![CDATA[Crypto]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 2026 10:31:33 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_b89d438db2b540bea7f7c332ab120cba~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_465,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[John Dizard: Watch for Rationing of Oil, Gas &#38; By-Products]]></title><description><![CDATA[When we want to know what is happening in the world of energy, John Dizard is our first call. His views on the approaching economic collapse due to the US-Israeli war against Iran are disturbing but also suggest some investment themes that we address at the end of the discussion. "Unless there's some miracle within the next few days, we're heading towards diesel rationing in Europe, jet fuel rationing, serious shortages."]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira828</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69cd78fe2a4608ae001a98f2</guid><category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 21:38:43 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_eb4a36ac4e4d4d0eb5b2205953448edf~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_400,h_400,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Top-Seven Banks, NDFIs and Private Credit Risk]]></title><description><![CDATA[We infer the size of the NDFI portfolio of individual banks by subtracting the aggregate NDFI series of the FDIC from Other Loans &#38; Leases. In 2010 when the FDIC first started gathering the data, NDFI loans were less than a quarter of the “other loans and leases” (OLL) category, but today they are 60% of OLL and growing fast. ]]></description><link>https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira827</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69c970bf4b5dfe0bfdb2b7e7</guid><category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category><category><![CDATA[Credit Risk]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 29 Mar 2026 23:38:51 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/b0226b_ca9257d3806942ddb45287d6da1645c9~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_895,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator></dc:creator></item></channel></rss>