QT, Interest Rates & Bank Solvency
At the Fed, because “confidence” is considered a factor in “policy,” it is OK to fib and obfuscate about the true cost of monetary policy.
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- 5 days ago
- 10 min
Update: New York Community Bank
We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.
917 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 23
- 6 min
FOMC Doubles Down on Market Risk
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are another bank failure or two away from returning to the private sector.
2,605 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 21
- 5 min
Winners & Losers in the New Gilded Age
Mark Twain called Washington ''the grand old benevolent National Asylum for the Helpless'' in his classic "The Gilded Age."
1,460 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 17
- 8 min
Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings
We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio
2,408 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 14
- 8 min
QE & the Yellen Banking Crisis
By any reasonable standard, Janet Yellen should have already resigned, but not in the strange world of Washington.
3,004 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 11
- 6 min
Who Killed Silicon Valley Bank?; The IRA Bank Book Q1 2023
Last week not a single member of the Big Media managed to ask Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the state of the US banking system
8,619 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 6
- 8 min
Atlas Stumbles, Silvergate Wallows; 360 Mortgage v. Fortress (and RITM)
Are nonbank mortgage firms a risk to Ginnie Mae? Or is it really the other way around?
1,608 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 2
- 6 min
RKT Sinks, UWMC Wobbles, RITM Treads Water & Goldman Doubles Down
GS is a securities dealer first and foremost and has no comparative advantage as a bank.
832 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 27
- 6 min
QT & Powell's Liquidity Trap
The Federal Open Market Committee has arguably lost control of monetary policy and has placed America's banks in grave risk.
8,262 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 23
- 7 min
The Return of Credit Risk
Fact is, Dr. Brainard has primary culpability in the growing economic pain being felt around the country.
2,238 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 21
- 6 min
Is Stripe Worth $55 Billion? Really?
CEO Patrick Collison is guiding investors and the media to a $200 million profit in 2023. Selective disclosure??
532 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 16
- 5 min
Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates -- Again?
As the FOMC moves short-term rates towards 6%, we expect to take another run at double-digit rates for prime residential mortgage loans.
1,294 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 13
- 8 min
Ginnie Mae - Credit Suisse = ? A Biden MSR Tax? Does BKI + ICE = < 2?
Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions
962 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 9
- 7 min
Mortgage Wrap; PennyMac Financial, Rithm Capital & MSRs
We suspect that the IMBs will be sellers of conventional assets to defend their Ginnie Mae MSRs. Banks may be buyers of conventional assets
470 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 6
- 7 min
Goldman Sachs + Bank of New York Mellon = ?
The risk-adjusted return on capital for BK is negative and probably lower than Goldman, the highest risk large US bank
595 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 3
- 9 min
Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs
The big take away from Q4 2022 earnings is that credit expenses are headed higher and at a brisk pace
741 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 30
- 7 min
Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial
Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.
824 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 25
- 8 min
Silvergate, Reverse RPs and the “Theology of Prosperity”
Crypto, of course, is not an asset as much as a bad idea that was given life by Quantitative Easing
834 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 23
- 6 min
Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
494 views
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