The Institutional Risk Analyst

The fact that Secretary Bessent felt the need to make an announcement of increased bond buybacks in front to the 20-year auction suggests that the Treasury is expecting more weak auctions going forward. How else do we explain Bessent’s behavior? But more important, when will President Trump and Secretary Bessent stop pretending that the situation in the Treasury debt market is not a problem?

As the war with Iran continues to fester, we suspect that there will eventually be a majority on the Federal Open Market Committee to raise short-term interest rates – whether or not Warsh joins the majority or even votes for the move. With the Treasury running a fiscal deficit of 6% of GDP, we think the FOMC has little hope of slowing inflation but may soon be dealing with a slowing economy -- this despite the massive fiscal stimulus.

Banks face a market in 2H 2026 where inflation is going to rise and prices for on-the run securities will likely fall. But the wall of money that has been manipulating individual technology stocks with impunity for months is going to go somewhere. In a world where the US Treasury is actively manipulating ST interest rates and arguably selling volatility, where do you hide?

The key point to make about gold and backwardation isn't a gold price correlation to interest rates, but a gold basis correlation to interest rates. The basis spread is far more important than the price level when we talk about gold. I argue that we'll get to a point where essentially gold withdraws its bid on the dollar entirely. And gold goes into permanent backwardation more than a devaluation of money the backwardation of gold really represents a collapse in trust in the

The Entropy Trap treats markets the way physicists treat complex systems under stress. It does not begin with a forecast. It begins with measurement: level, velocity, acceleration, correlation, feedback loops, and whether stress is rising or falling. The central claim is simple: we are not in another normal cycle. We are in a structural reorganisation in which the old equilibrium is no longer recovering.

In the past five trading days, gold has moved up almost 3% but silver has done even better. Physical supply constraints in India and Asia are pushing prices for gold and silver higher, illustrating the disconnect between the momentum driven financial markets in the US and Europe and the physical market in Asia.

On Capitol Hill, Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee this week to consider his nomination as Fed Chairman. Warsh reiterated that Fed “monetary policy independence is essential.” But he got some rough questions from Democrats, especially ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) She asked whether he will be a “sock puppet” manipulated by President Trump. Warren called Warsh “uniquely ill-suited for the job as Fed chair,” but frankly Warren is uniquely unquali

The latest turn of events in Washington has left the Saudis and Israelis profoundly annoyed. The US kicked over the hornets nest in Iran, but now Washington is seeking peace even as the Iranians continue to attack the Gulf states. A few ships carrying LPG for Pakistan have been allowed through the Strait after paying Tehran the extortionate sum of $1 per barrel, payable either in Chinese yuan or bitcoin.

Nations like Argentina and Turkey show the dangers of funding in dollars when you have a weak, small currency. Size matters. That is one big reason why the EU, China and Brazil have not been able to create an effective competitor to the dollar. Those remaining “AAA” sovereigns like Canada, Australia and Belgium have limited capital markets access. But if Americans manage to convince the rest of the world that we are indeed libertines and appropriate subjects for ridicule.

This week The IRA will be at the MBA Secondary Market Conference & Expo, as always held at the Marriott Marquis in Times Square. The 8th floor reception and bar is where folks generally hang out. Attendees should not miss the panel on mortgage servicing rights at 3:00 PM Monday. We’ll give our impressions of this important conference in the next edition of The Institutional Risk Analyst.

But should the bank stumble in a way that surprises Europe’s distracted politicians, look for a very hastily planned merger. Our candidate for the first zombie merger of the 21st Century: DB plus Citigroup (C). Neither bank has a particularly strong domestic banking business or funding base, but there are some interesting asymmetries. Financially it would be a disaster for shareholders, but politically it makes all the sense in the world -- especially if you are Angela Mer

Dollars, Deficits and "Duh" in Davos