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The Institutional Risk Analyst

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The Bull Case for Large Banks

May 15, 2024  | Premium Service | There has been a lot of worrying about smaller banks with outsized exposure to commercial real estate, yet the larger performers in the bank group are marching higher and have been for the past year and more. Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry? Revenue growth? Equity manager angst? No, big is better. But big and superlative is even better.

Source: Google Finance

Global rotation out of other more aspirational sectors like tech and AI seems to propel equity manager interest in financials broadly defined. When you hear people discussing a roll-up of AI detritus, you know the party is over. But remember that in some cases those handsome double digit gains in mere banks started well-below book value. What is the bull case for financials given the large percentage gains in the top half of the performers? 

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