The Institutional Risk Analyst

We noted in the most recent IRA Bank Book that the Q1 2025 banking industry data from the FDIC was showing improvement in certain commercial line items, particularly non-owner occupied real estate. But is this another head fake by desperate banks trying to conceal rancid commercial real estate exposures?

President Trump will not try to fire Chairman Powell. Why not? First, because Powell cannot be removed save for malfeasance. Second, because firing Powell would seriously piss off Senate Republicans, killing Trump's hopes for tax legislation this year.

Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns

Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

When SCHW surpassed U.S. Bancorp in size in 2021, you knew that SCHW’s leadership had gotten lost. 

The Citi decision to exit mortgage servicing perhaps made sense in 2017, but today not so much.

Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.

The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.

Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.

Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?

BAC is in big trouble, not due to credit but because of sub-par asset returns. BAC’s return on assets has fallen to just 0.8% in Q1 2024

Only in the strange confines of Washington do you still find people who think that the federal budget deficit is not a problem.

BK and Vanguard are above the 4.9% legal limit on ownership of voting shares of a bank. This fact gives the FDIC et al the power...

We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...

FDIC Chairman Gruenberg ought to tell New York State to take over the rent controlled loans from Signature, NYCB and other lenders...

Q: What do Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and New York Community Bank have in common? Auditor, KPMG.

Net interest income at USB was down again for the fourth consecutive quarter, confirming a trend across the banking industry

Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.

Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.

What does PNC tell us now about commercial loan exposures in 2024?