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Debt Deflation in CRE? PFSI, COOP & RKT
If the run-of-the-mill Republic First interest rate mark is 13.3% of assets that is not just wiping out one bank’s 8% capital but also FDIC
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May 5, 20249 min read


Top-Five Banks: Q1 '24 Earnings Setup
We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...
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Mar 19, 20247 min read


Update: UWMC & Rocket; Rate Cut Dreams Fade
Industry leaders believe that the FHFA wants the GSEs to offer issuers "repurchase insurance" to the tune of 25bps per loan.
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Feb 29, 20247 min read


Interest Rates, Mortgage Lenders & MSRs
While there are a great number of people inside the Fed who ponder the appropriate level of reserves in the system, they don't really know
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Feb 15, 20246 min read


Assume Loss Given Default > 100% | PennyMac & Western Alliance Bank
Q: What do Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and New York Community Bank have in common? Auditor, KPMG.
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Feb 4, 202410 min read


Housing Finance Outlook Q4 2023
Baring some emergency, the Fed seems on track to keep interest rates at current levels indefintely.
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Nov 14, 20233 min read


ACH: The Bank Deposit Ain't in the Mail
Was the breakdown of the normally stable and, indeed, routine workings of the Clearinghouse the result of bad actors?
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Nov 6, 20234 min read


Update: PennyMac Financial Services
If we are marking balance sheet assets to actual market in the age of deflation, what of the heavily modeled world of servicing assets?
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Nov 1, 20236 min read


Interest Rates, Fintech & MSRs
Regulatory skepticism about mortgage assets could effect financing rates for lenders, which means higher mortgage rates for consumers.
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Oct 26, 20239 min read


Washington Trip Notes; Mr. Cooper & PennyMac Financial
The last Treasury Secretary that tried to extend the maturities of US government debt was Jack Lew (2013-2017). Yellen missed an opportunity
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Jul 28, 20235 min read


Update: Mr. Cooper & PennyMac Financial
Both PFSI and COOP are navigating the current market well, but we have questions about where the former is headed.
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Apr 30, 20236 min read


Update: Charles Schwab (SCHW); Sagent Presentation
Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023
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Apr 3, 20236 min read


Update: Credit Suisse (CS) & PennyMac Financial (PFSI)
Like COOP, volumes are down dramatically from 2021 but MSR values and cash flows from servicing are rising
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Oct 28, 20227 min read


Update: Mr. Cooper (COOP)
Despite the outlook for the industry, COOP continues to be one of the better performing names in our mortgage surveillance group.
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Oct 26, 20224 min read


The Bear Case for Ginnie Mae Issuers
The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent
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Sep 22, 20228 min read


Interview: David Stevens on GNMA Capital Rule & ICE + BKI
The entire mortgage industry will have a single point of failure with the ICE/BKI combination
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Sep 11, 20228 min read


Update: Guild Mortgage & Block Inc.
Since Block has not yet changed its ticker symbol, perhaps Mr. Dorsey will eventually change the company's name back to Square...
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Aug 7, 20227 min read


Update: Mr. Cooper Group
We agree with the assessment by Leon Cooperman of COOP management that this firm is one of the best positioned IMBs in the industry...
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Jul 27, 20225 min read


Bank Earnings Setup: JPM, USB, WFC, BAC & Citi
Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet
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Jun 29, 20228 min read


Does ICE + Black Knight = Shareholder Value?
ICE buying the revenue streams represented by BKI is a big bet on yesterday, not a bold initiative to change the mortgage industry
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May 11, 20228 min read
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