August 8, 2022 | Premium Service | Earnings season continues to roll along, with some notable surprises and also disappointments. This week, The Institutional Risk Analyst looks at Block (SQ) and Guild Mortgage (GHLD), two story situations that have important messages for investors in financials. Both were punished in the first half of 2022 but both names have significant value outside of the current noise in the financial markets.
With SQ, we see the negative impact of the deflation of crypto as the FOMC raises real interest rates, but the core business continues to grow. We think the Street is dead wrong about an impending pivot by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and remind one and all that a sea change has occurred at the central bank. While the threats and bullying from the progressives in Congress is tough to take, restoring credibility in terms of inflation is now the Fed’s focus.
Investors in the credit markets ought to consider how some of these platforms and strategies will look when the Fed goes into 2024 and into the general election with short-term interest rates still elevated. Housing costs, for example, are going to continue rising into 2023, thwarting hopes for an early pivot by the Fed. And across the universe of financial assets, the upward demand pull on valuations by investors is striking.