The Institutional Risk Analyst

SOFI is up almost 300% while the Bitcoin futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are up less than 100%.  Below we provide some thoughts on the banking group as we head into September. 

When Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (PNFP) announced an all-stock transaction last week to acquire Synovus Financial Corp. (SNV), we were unimpressed. The markets sold off on the news and there then followed a series of stock downgrades and credit rating agency actions that were disconcerting to put it mildly. 

Whalen Global Advisors LLC (WGA) has published the latest edition of the WGA Top 50 Banks, the fifty top performing large commercial banks in the US. Drawn from the members of Peer Group 1 and other sources, WGA screens the group based upon five proprietary measures of financial and market performance.

We have little conviction behind our long positions in AXP and the SPX, thus the defensive recommendation in terms of sell orders.

As of yesterday's close, BK was right behind SoFi Technology (SOFI) leading the bank surveillance group higher. BK closed yesterday at 14x forward earnings and 1.6x book value, roughly the same PE multiple as JPM but at a lower book value multiple.

At one point last year, HOOD was up several hundred percent, but has given back much of those gains. Yet the leaders of our finance group have outperformed the broad market.

TD was up about 6% over the past three months, the only name in our test group with a positive three-month market return, of note.

Like 2023 and 2024, the year 2025 may end up being relatively stable, yet investors remain worried about stealth externalities.

And just why do financial firms like HOOD, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) and Block (XYZ) talk about EBITDA in their investor materials?

GS had not appeared in the top 25 since we began the indices a year ago, while MS had made it three times.

Like many names in the fintech space, growing profits and earnings are usually an indication that a stock is exiting max upside period

Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.

What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?

You can tell lies and damn lies about the idea of releasing Fannie and Freddie, but the SEC and FINRA cannot and will not say a word. 

Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI

The first comment to make is that consumer defaults are rising across the board. The only question we need to consider is the rate of change

When will Disney decide to sell some or all of its streaming operations to keep the lights on at its theme parks?

AXP is a premium stock that is best acquired when people think, incorrectly, that the world is ending.

The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.

Regulatory skepticism about mortgage assets could effect financing rates for lenders, which means higher mortgage rates for consumers.