Trading Points: Banks, Interest Rates & MSRs
- Apr 16
- 8 min read
Updated: 3 days ago
April 17, 2025 | Premium Service | A number of readers have asked us about what happens to financials and the broader markets under President Donald Trump? The answer is remarkably consistent with the basic view of markets and the economy prior to November of last year. The new addition of tariffs to the narrative has everyone’s attention, including economists and members of the Federal Reserve Board, but these same observers have been calling for a recession that has not materialized.
"The risk of recession would outweigh the risk of escalating inflation," says Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller. If Trump's tariffs remain in place for some time, the economy is likely to slow to a crawl, Waller predicted Monday. As a result, interest-rate cuts will be warranted, Waller believes, even if the taxes on imports cause a spike in inflation.
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