The Institutional Risk Analyst

Why is Secretary Bessent talking publicly about Powell or the Fed at all? How does this squawking enhance the credibility of the Trump Administration or the U.S. Treasury?

The common penny stocks of these two appendages of the state, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are up over 600% in the past year, generating huge gains for the likes of Bill Ackman and John Paulson. Bitcoin is up a paltry 50% LTM. Indeed, much like old fintech stocks such as PayPal (PYPL) and Block Inc (XTZ), bitcoin seems to be losing the special novelty that always seems to drive these manic stories. Is bitcoin now just another boring Wall Street ETF?

When President Donald Trump says the Fed should cut interest rates, he is probably right – at least speaking from the perspective of the real estate markets.

President Trump will not try to fire Chairman Powell. Why not? First, because Powell cannot be removed save for malfeasance. Second, because firing Powell would seriously piss off Senate Republicans, killing Trump's hopes for tax legislation this year.

Some of the smaller holders of MSRs may ask themselves if selling right now is not the best strategy over a 36-48 month horizon. 

When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.

President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico. 

Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling

Folks in the financial sector are beginning to wonder if certain parts of the government apparatus will continue to function.

The real threat of tariffs announced by Trump is not inflation, but rather a LT decline in the dollar as the global reserve currency

As a practical matter, no Fed chairman or governor can function without the support of the White House and the US Treasury.