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January 1, 2024 | Premium Service | A number of readers have asked about our recommendations for the New Year. This is the obvious question because the narrative of approaching economic pain and woe that prevailed at the beginning of Q3 2023 has been replaced in a matter of weeks by less than cautious optimism, even exuberance. Buyer beware.
There are more than a few questions as we head into the New Year, but one certainty is that market risk in the form of volatility remains the most notable factor as it was in 2023. The other, very large question hanging over equity and fixed income markets is the federal budget deficit. Treasury auctions prior to the New Year were weak and securities were allocated near the top of the range, suggesting rising LT rates in 2024.