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Will the FOMC Break the Financials?
Will the market risk created by quantitative tightening (QT) tip over a large bank or nonbank financial firm?
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Oct 17, 20227 min read


Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup
How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?
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Oct 12, 20227 min read


Large Banks: QT Winners & Losers
A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.
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Oct 2, 202210 min read


The Bear Case for Ginnie Mae Issuers
The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent
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Sep 22, 20228 min read


Interview: Scott Olson of Community Home Lenders of America
The banks have left the government market. Now Ginnie Mae seems bound and determined to drive the IMBs out of government lending as well
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Aug 24, 20226 min read


Interest Rates & Bank Earnings
The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets
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Jul 19, 20226 min read


Bank Earnings Setup: JPM, USB, WFC, BAC & Citi
Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet
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Jun 29, 20228 min read


Update: US Banks Post-QE
Even as the FOMC raises interest rates, we caution our readers to be prepared for disappointment from banks near term
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Jun 15, 20225 min read


The IRA Bank Book | Outlook Q2 2022
The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...
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May 29, 20222 min read


Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
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May 4, 20225 min read


Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
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Apr 11, 20225 min read


Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
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Mar 28, 20226 min read


Profile: Citigroup (C)
Why does this bank exist? What market does it serve and how will it grow in the future?
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Jan 27, 20226 min read


Q4 Earnings | Big Banks & QE
In the short-run rising interest rates and spreads will help bank earnings. But where is the next credit hot spot?
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Jan 12, 20228 min read


Mortgage Crises Yesterday and Today
As we move into Q4 2021 earnings, keep your eyes peeled for news of restructuring of urban commercial commercial and multifamily properties
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Jan 4, 20226 min read


The IRA Bank Book | Q3 2021
In the Q3 2021 edition of The IRA Bank Book, we document the slow destruction of US bank asset and equity returns by the FOMC.
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Sep 20, 202111 min read


The IRA Top Ten Financials
Which US financial will best weather the coming equity market correction?
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Sep 9, 20216 min read


Profile: PNC v U.S. Bancorp v Truist Financial
U.S. Bancorp, PNC and Truist Financial hold great value creation potential. But which is likely to realize this potential?
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Aug 27, 20219 min read


Profile: Bank of America (BAC)
BAC is the worst performing bank in the top-five US commercial banks and often underperforms the average for Peer Group 1.
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Jul 23, 20215 min read


Profile: NYCB + Flagstar Bancorp
The combination of New York Community Bank and Flagstar creates an $85 billion bank with a national mortgage business
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May 4, 20216 min read
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