The Institutional Risk Analyst

Look for the FOMC to act early and go big in terms of forward repurchase agreements at the first sign of liquidity stress.

Cheap liquidity c/o the FOMC does little for bank earnings when asset returns are also falling

The Fed's 2% inflation target needs to be replaced in a specific way

Each burst of liquidity provided by the FOMC in response to a major externality creates the conditions for the next financial crisis

The mere fact of vaccination, effective or no, is probably worth several points of GDP simply by improving the national mood.

US banks are running at income levels that are less than half of a year ago...

We anticipate significant loan loss reserve releases back into income in Q1 2021 and thereafter as banks adjust their loan loss provisions

Bitcoin and Tether are technologically enabled forms of financial fraud

Unless the FOMC relents and eases up on its massive purchases of Treasury securities and MBS, bank earnings are likely to decline further