The Institutional Risk Analyst

Look for the FOMC to act early and go big in terms of forward repurchase agreements at the first sign of liquidity stress.

Cheap liquidity c/o the FOMC does little for bank earnings when asset returns are also falling

The Fed's 2% inflation target needs to be replaced in a specific way

Each burst of liquidity provided by the FOMC in response to a major externality creates the conditions for the next financial crisis

The mere fact of vaccination, effective or no, is probably worth several points of GDP simply by improving the national mood.

US banks are running at income levels that are less than half of a year ago...

We anticipate significant loan loss reserve releases back into income in Q1 2021 and thereafter as banks adjust their loan loss provisions

Bitcoin and Tether are technologically enabled forms of financial fraud

Unless the FOMC relents and eases up on its massive purchases of Treasury securities and MBS, bank earnings are likely to decline further

May 29, 2017 | In the mid 2000s, just before the financial crisis began, US banks were reporting credit metrics for all asset classes in loan portfolios that were quite literally too good to be true. And they were. The cost of bad credit decisions was hidden, for a time, by rising asset prices. The same aggressive, low-rate environment used by the Fed to artificially stoke growth in the early 2000s has been repeated in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, only to a greater e

May 13, 2017 | What do the US residential housing market, the stock market and the dollar all have in common? All of these markets represent bubbles created and driven by the aggressive social engineering of the Federal Open Market Committee. Will live in an age of asset bubbles rather than true economic growth. The investment world is skewed by the latest round of monetary policy experimentation by the Fed, including years of artificially low interest rates and trillion