The Institutional Risk Analyst

The proliferation of low- or no-cost coin systems is ultimately negative for established players in nonbank finance and payments, including the major card issuers, as we discuss below.  Still worried about interchange fees?

Even a small decrease in prepayments due to higher LT interest rates could significantly impact the fair value of the Bank of America mortgage portfolio, forcing unrealized losses higher. If LT rates continue to rise, one veteran banker told The IRA yesterday, then BAC and several other large banks are going to start to literally shake apart from unrealized losses on COVID era assets.

Is the flow of toxic waste pouring from busted private equity portfolios into credit trades a threat to insurance companies? Yup.

President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico. 

We think it is notable that AMP has underperformed the other members of the group other than SCHW over the past year.

The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.

Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.

UBS ultimately seems intent upon running off the remaining US mortgage assets, including a few billion in Ginnie Mae MSR financings

The Q2 2023 disclosure for PACW suggests an institution that is bleeding cash and operating in extremis...

We expect to see USB trading at a discount to JPM and Peer Group 1 until the bank improves its operating leverage to pre-COVID levels.

Persistent talk about a 5.5% 30-year mortgage rate later this year is badly wrong as TBAs flip from 5.5% to 6% coupons for delivery in June

We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio

The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.

There are virtually no conventional lenders in the US today that are profitable when the sell a loan into the secondary market.

We speak with a revolutionary in the world of lending, Tom Showalter, Founder and CEO of Candor Technology.

We have long advocated the idea of an independent mortgage bank (IMB) combining with a strong regional lender

Because of forward liquidity and credit concerns, the window for IMBs to tap the public equity markets appears to have closed for now