The Institutional Risk Analyst

Many in the Buy Side chorus are looking forward to lower interest rates, but we are concerned that next year could really be about solvency

Since 2008, dollar swap spreads have traded below Treasury yields, suggesting a persistent demand for dollars coming from offshore.

Whether we are talking about corporate credit exposures or housing, the short trade may be the place to be over the next year.

Rapidly rising interest rates in Q3 2022 pushed down the tangible capital for the US banking industry to negative $1.9 trillion

Bankruptcy of Reverse Mortgage Funding may be first step in a systemic crisis affecting the government loan market

The US banking industry has been rendered insolvent by the Federal Open Market Committee

Despite all the hyperbole, the great crypto fraud was a small game, like the party poker that many crypto enthusiasts share in common

Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?

There are literally dozens of banks in the US made insolvent by the policy moves of the FOMC over the past year.

It seems obvious that the reported book value metrics coming from many commercial banks, REITs and mortgage banks are a tad inflated...

Crypto has gone from a sort-of juiced up equity strategy to a distressed credit story in just hours.

Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023

The big news this week starts with the poor showing by Rocket Companies (RKT), reporting a loss for Q3 2022 and a big decline in volumes.

The cult of ever falling interest rates goes back 50 years and spans the terms of Fed chairs back to Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker...

Like COOP, volumes are down dramatically from 2021 but MSR values and cash flows from servicing are rising

Despite the outlook for the industry, COOP continues to be one of the better performing names in our mortgage surveillance group.

Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets

Will the market risk created by quantitative tightening (QT) tip over a large bank or nonbank financial firm?

How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?

The increase in interest rates towards 5% for federal funds may turn out to be permanent for several years