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QT + Lower Federal Outlays = ?
Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling
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Feb 11, 20255 min read


Update: Has Jane Fraser Redeemed Citigroup? Nope.
Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?
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Dec 18, 20247 min read


Fed Duration Trap Threatens Banks, SOMA
It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis.
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Nov 1, 20248 min read


Should TD Bank Rethink US Retail?
WFC is not even out of dodge yet, but TD has cut off the fingers of one hand in yakuza style and is now headed for years of misery
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Oct 16, 20246 min read


Will Rohit Chopra Kill Basel III? Shrinking NIM at JPM and WFC
In opposing Basel III, Chopra is doing the bidding of Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) but big banks are very happy to have no rule at all.
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Oct 14, 20245 min read


Citigroup + (Cenlar - Black Knight) = ?
The Citi decision to exit mortgage servicing perhaps made sense in 2017, but today not so much.
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Oct 9, 20247 min read


New & Old Names in Nonbank Finance
In dollar terms, the moves in 2023 were tiny vs the post March rally in 2020.
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Aug 21, 20247 min read


The Top Seven Banks: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, PNC & TFC
Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.
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Aug 18, 20249 min read


Update: New York Community Bank & Mr. Cooper
Joe Otting does not seem to understand the value of the Flagstar correspondent lending and mortgage servicing business...
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Jul 27, 20248 min read


USSC Kills Chevron | Zombie Banks Pass Stress Tests?
The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.
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Jul 1, 20248 min read


Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC
Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.
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Jun 23, 20249 min read


Update: BMO + Bank of the West = ?
BMO arguably has the weakest reserve position among the large Canadian banks....
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Jun 17, 20246 min read


The Bull Case for Large Banks
Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?
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May 15, 20247 min read


Assume Loss Given Default > 100% | PennyMac & Western Alliance Bank
Q: What do Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and New York Community Bank have in common? Auditor, KPMG.
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Feb 4, 202410 min read


Update: U.S. Bancorp
Net interest income at USB was down again for the fourth consecutive quarter, confirming a trend across the banking industry
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Jan 22, 20245 min read


Banks Slow Walk Commercial Real Estate Losses
As reflected in the valuations for JPM, WFC and BXMT, institutional investors are still not that concerned about commercial real est losses
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Jan 18, 20247 min read


Bank Earnings Setup Q4 2023
Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.
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Jan 11, 20245 min read


End of Fintech? Biden GSE Release?
Is AFRM maturing from a hot new fintech entrant to a familiar face headed for a bank license?? Yikes.
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Dec 31, 20237 min read


Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility
Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.
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Dec 21, 20237 min read


Update: Bank of America
If you conduct a fire sale analysis of BAC's balance sheet as of Q3 2023, the result more than wipes out the bank's tangible equity
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Nov 8, 20235 min read
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