The Institutional Risk Analyst

The big story nobody is discussing is the fact that large banks led by JPM, BAC and TFC continue to sell off briskly

SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.

If you were really, REALLY going to do mortgage warehouse lending in today's market, KEY would be the better platform, not BNS.

GS saw loss provisions fall slightly in Q2 2024 to $282 million but the number was still $600 million in the first half of the year...

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.

We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025. 

FDIC Chairman Gruenberg ought to tell New York State to take over the rent controlled loans from Signature, NYCB and other lenders...

Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.

COIN has been helped by a groundswell of positive comment about crypto in 2023...

One of the effects of QE has been making many banks and real estate investors insolvent, a precursor to debt defaults.

Large universal banks that ply the capital markets and use essentially infinite leverage in the derivatives markets face challenges

Bank earnings can be best described as cautiously mediocre, but as usual the Street proclaimed that three banks "beat the estimates"

The public behavior and decision-making processes of SoftBank suggest that the organization is in trouble.

GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.

We continue to believe that combining Citi and GS may make sense in terms of consolidating two capital markets businesses

S&P was the first to call out the growing lack of fiscal discipline in Washington, downgrading Uncle Sam in 2011

We expect to see USB trading at a discount to JPM and Peer Group 1 until the bank improves its operating leverage to pre-COVID levels.

If you agree with our view that the short-selling of the stock was mistaken, then the discount for SCHW is unwarranted.

The funding crisis affecting US banks is not over and very definitely not limited to smaller banks.