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QT + Lower Federal Outlays = ?
Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling
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Feb 115 min read


Trump Attacks the Administrative State
Folks in the financial sector are beginning to wonder if certain parts of the government apparatus will continue to function.
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Feb 96 min read


The Bottom Quartile: FLG, KEY, LOB & TCBI
A look at the bottom quarter of WGA Bank Top 100 Index. We view TCBI as a work in progress. But kudos to KEY...
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Feb 67 min read


Trump, Musk & the Dollar
The real threat of tariffs announced by Trump is not inflation, but rather a LT decline in the dollar as the global reserve currency
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Feb 46 min read


Is Ameriprise Overvalued? Is PennyMac Cheap vs the REITs?
We think it is notable that AMP has underperformed the other members of the group other than SCHW over the past year.
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Feb 37 min read


WGA Bank Top 100 Index | Q1 2025
GS had not appeared in the top 25 since we began the indices a year ago, while MS had made it three times.
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Jan 294 min read


SoFi Technology Gets No Respect
Like many names in the fintech space, growing profits and earnings are usually an indication that a stock is exiting max upside period
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Jan 274 min read


Credit Teeters as President Trump Roars
When President Donald Trump says that interest rates are too high, he may not fully understand just how right he is about the cost of credit
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Jan 276 min read


The Fed & GSEs: Questions Asked and Unanswered in Washington
In the strange world of Washington, speaking truth in public is a capital crime. Truth is often revealed accidentally.
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Jan 237 min read


Update: Charles Schwab | SCHW
The SVB duration management from 2020 onward was recklessly negligent by any reasonable standard
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Jan 225 min read


Residential Mortgage Finance 2025
The majority of the actual cash profit generated from residential lending is found in the mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).
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Jan 2012 min read


GSE Release? Really. What Do JPM and BAC Say About 2025 Earnings?
Without profits from commissions and capital markets, BAC would have reported a down quarter due to higher funding and operating expenses.
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Jan 166 min read


Big Losses in Commercial Real Estate & PE in 2025?
Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.
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Jan 136 min read


Trump, Risk and Liquidity
With Gov Michael Barr stepping down from bank supervision, perhaps Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is more willing to test liquidity lower bound
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Jan 87 min read


Taxing Crypto? And Just Where Is That Consumer Recession?
Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.
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Jan 58 min read


Critiquing Bill Ackman Statement on GSE Release
Cute reference to "average cost," but total return to date would be of greater interest.
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Jan 28 min read


Update: Top Bank Asset Managers
As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.
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Dec 30, 20248 min read


Four Big Risks Ahead in 2025
Indeed, if President Trump wants to be rid of Jerome Powell he can simply impeach him for violations of the Federal Reserve Act
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Dec 27, 202411 min read


Liquidity & Rates Fall as Trump Trades Beckon
What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.
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Dec 23, 20247 min read


Update: Has Jane Fraser Redeemed Citigroup? Nope.
Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?
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Dec 18, 20247 min read
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