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GSE Release? Really? Update: Ally Financial
You take the GSEs out of conservatorship, the big banks led by JPMorgan and U.S. Bancorp will own the conventional loan market
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Apr 11, 202410 min read


Inside the WGA Bank Top 10 Index
So what makes the WGA Bank Top 10 unique? Below we provide some quantitative and qualitative comments on each of the ten best US banks
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Mar 13, 20247 min read


Home Mortgage Rates Falling? Really?
If President Trump starts talking about fixing the federal budget deficit and redeveloping moribund urban real estate, he’d win in November
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Feb 18, 20246 min read


NYCB Cleans House Badly, NAIC Gives Insurers Pass on Realized Losses
Sad to say, the business at NYCB is doing better than you'd think reading the bank's absurd disclosure.
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Feb 1, 20247 min read


Good, Bad & Ugly: AXP, SOFI & BAC
AXP is a premium stock that is best acquired when people think, incorrectly, that the world is ending.
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Jan 30, 20247 min read


EVs Wane, Fintech Sputters & COF Dumps Commercial Mortgages
Now let’s take a look at how some members of the banking and fintech sector are doing in the first month of 2024.
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Jan 29, 20248 min read


Bank Earnings Setup Q4 2023
Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.
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Jan 11, 20245 min read


End of Fintech? Biden GSE Release?
Is AFRM maturing from a hot new fintech entrant to a familiar face headed for a bank license?? Yikes.
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Dec 31, 20237 min read


Another Progressive New Year?
Many participants in the equity markets are chewing on ski tips this holiday season after boldly predicting lower interest rates in 2024
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Dec 19, 20236 min read


Rates Rally Financials, But Credit Fears Remain
The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.
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Dec 15, 20237 min read


Update: Flying Fintechs & Zombie Banks
COIN has been helped by a groundswell of positive comment about crypto in 2023...
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Nov 29, 20236 min read


The Moral Hazard of Jerome Powell
Instead of seeking authority from Congress, Chairman Bernanke and other members of the FOMC merely turned on the public spigot.
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Nov 27, 20236 min read


Yield Curve Normalization Good for Banks?
We think that doing nothing is a fool’s trade, to be blunt, because the next Treasury refunding could pull market yields sharply higher.
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Nov 20, 20236 min read


Rate Peak Emerges, Deflation Looms
One of the effects of QE has been making many banks and real estate investors insolvent, a precursor to debt defaults.
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Oct 30, 20234 min read


Interest Rates, Fintech & MSRs
Regulatory skepticism about mortgage assets could effect financing rates for lenders, which means higher mortgage rates for consumers.
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Oct 26, 20239 min read


QE Means Higher for Longer, But No Recession
We look for modest rate cuts in 2025, followed by an equally modest boom in mortgage lending
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Oct 24, 20235 min read


Does PacWest + Banc of California + Warburg Pincus = Value?
The Q2 2023 disclosure for PACW suggests an institution that is bleeding cash and operating in extremis...
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Sep 18, 20237 min read


Markets Affirm the Unbearable Lightness of Fintech
When you are in a big crowd, nothing else matters.
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Sep 7, 20235 min read


Update: Goldman Sachs + Citigroup; Interest Rates Higher Longer?
We continue to believe that combining Citi and GS may make sense in terms of consolidating two capital markets businesses
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Aug 23, 20236 min read


China's Debt Crisis Accelerates
Our view is that China has been caught in a debt deflation for the past five years.
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Aug 22, 20238 min read
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