The Institutional Risk Analyst

With a budget deficit projected to be $1.8 trillion in 2024, the odds of the FOMC actually controlling inflation are pretty low. 

Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?

If the run-of-the-mill Republic First interest rate mark is 13.3% of assets that is not just wiping out one bank’s 8% capital but also FDIC

Our Bank Top 10 and Top 25 indices continue to outperform the industry benchmarks, but the broader samples show growing financial stress

The yield on BAC's $320 billion commercial and industrial (C&I) book was just 5.4% or more than 150bp below peer at year-end 2023.

Only in the strange confines of Washington do you still find people who think that the federal budget deficit is not a problem.

We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...

FDIC Chairman Gruenberg ought to tell New York State to take over the rent controlled loans from Signature, NYCB and other lenders...

Sad to say, the business at NYCB is doing better than you'd think reading the bank's absurd disclosure.

AXP is a premium stock that is best acquired when people think, incorrectly, that the world is ending.

The key thing to remember with commercial real estate is the change in price volatility and direction that has occurred since COVID.

As reflected in the valuations for JPM, WFC and BXMT, institutional investors are still not that concerned about commercial real est losses

If Fraser cannot articulate a coherent reason to keep the business together, a breakup may be the most sensible strategy.

Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.

The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk

Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.

Many participants in the equity markets are chewing on ski tips this holiday season after boldly predicting lower interest rates in 2024

The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.

COIN has been helped by a groundswell of positive comment about crypto in 2023...

GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.