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The Death of Leverage; What's the WAC of Bank America?
The yield on BAC's $320 billion commercial and industrial (C&I) book was just 5.4% or more than 150bp below peer at year-end 2023.
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Apr 24, 20247 min read


A Rising Floor on Interest Rates? | Update: Bank OZK
Only in the strange confines of Washington do you still find people who think that the federal budget deficit is not a problem.
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Apr 7, 20247 min read


Top-Five Banks: Q1 '24 Earnings Setup
We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...
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Mar 19, 20247 min read


Does Kathy Hochul Have a New York Community Bank Endgame?
FDIC Chairman Gruenberg ought to tell New York State to take over the rent controlled loans from Signature, NYCB and other lenders...
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Mar 6, 20247 min read


NYCB Cleans House Badly, NAIC Gives Insurers Pass on Realized Losses
Sad to say, the business at NYCB is doing better than you'd think reading the bank's absurd disclosure.
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Feb 1, 20247 min read


Good, Bad & Ugly: AXP, SOFI & BAC
AXP is a premium stock that is best acquired when people think, incorrectly, that the world is ending.
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Jan 30, 20247 min read


With Commercial Property, the Equity Goes First
The key thing to remember with commercial real estate is the change in price volatility and direction that has occurred since COVID.
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Jan 20, 20245 min read


Banks Slow Walk Commercial Real Estate Losses
As reflected in the valuations for JPM, WFC and BXMT, institutional investors are still not that concerned about commercial real est losses
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Jan 18, 20247 min read


Citigroup Cannot Cut to Profitability
If Fraser cannot articulate a coherent reason to keep the business together, a breakup may be the most sensible strategy.
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Jan 15, 20247 min read


Bank Earnings Setup Q4 2023
Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.
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Jan 11, 20245 min read


Comments on Basel III Endgame
The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk
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Jan 3, 20243 min read


Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility
Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.
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Dec 21, 20237 min read


Another Progressive New Year?
Many participants in the equity markets are chewing on ski tips this holiday season after boldly predicting lower interest rates in 2024
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Dec 19, 20236 min read


Rates Rally Financials, But Credit Fears Remain
The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.
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Dec 15, 20237 min read


Update: Flying Fintechs & Zombie Banks
COIN has been helped by a groundswell of positive comment about crypto in 2023...
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Nov 29, 20236 min read


FSOC Frets About Nonbank Risk; Goldman Sachs Stepping Back?
GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.
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Sep 21, 20236 min read


Bank Industry Review & Survey Q3 2023
The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations
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Sep 11, 20233 min read


Consumer Credit Collapsing? Not Yet...
Sadly for the bears in the audience, nothing would make the banks happier than if consumers would use more credit....
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Sep 5, 20236 min read


Mortgage Lenders Face Return of a Purchase Market
The “winners” in the mortgage sector will be those larger players with equally large servicing books that can access bank funding
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Jul 8, 20237 min read


Profile: Synchrony Financial
What can SYF tell us about the bleeding edge of unsecured consumer credit?
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Jun 9, 20236 min read
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