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Update: Guild Mortgage & Block Inc.
Since Block has not yet changed its ticker symbol, perhaps Mr. Dorsey will eventually change the company's name back to Square...
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Aug 7, 20227 min read


Should the FOMC Pause Rate Hikes After July?
The real message to the FOMC is this: hike another 75bp in July and then let the Fed funds target sit for a few meetings...
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Jul 21, 20225 min read


Interest Rates & Bank Earnings
The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets
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Jul 19, 20226 min read


Top Five US Banks by Market Performance
In times of market volatility and suddenly ended delusions of easy money, the prudent path is to fly to quality.
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Jul 7, 20225 min read


Bank Earnings Setup: JPM, USB, WFC, BAC & Citi
Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet
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Jun 29, 20228 min read


Bank Liquidity & Quantitative Tightening (QT)
A "normal" level for US bank deposits would be closer to $15 trillion than $19.9 trillion today.
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Jun 27, 20223 min read


The Fed and Housing
Issuing CMOs via the GSEs could help the FOMC out of its trading mess, but represents a monumental irony.
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Jun 20, 20228 min read


Update: US Banks Post-QE
Even as the FOMC raises interest rates, we caution our readers to be prepared for disappointment from banks near term
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Jun 15, 20225 min read


QT Means Short Credit Risk
Market risk realized today becomes credit risk tomorrow...
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May 31, 20226 min read


The IRA Bank Book | Outlook Q2 2022
The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...
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May 29, 20222 min read


Equity Market Valuations & Quantitative Tightening
The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is the largest ever margin call on equity exposures of all descriptions.
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May 23, 20227 min read


Update: Crypto Frauds and Fintech Dreams
Q: What do Elon Musk and Masayoshi Son have in common? Gigantic margin loans...
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May 18, 20226 min read


Feldkamp: Paul Volcker, Volatility, Inflation & Honesty
Benevolence, as Chris and I noted in our book "Financial Stability," always gets you more bang for the buck than being miserable.
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May 13, 20225 min read


Update: Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) and Silvergate Corp (SI)
There are virtually no conventional lenders in the US today that are profitable when the sell a loan into the secondary market.
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Apr 22, 20226 min read


Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
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Apr 20, 20225 min read


Profile: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs
Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...
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Apr 17, 20226 min read


Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
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Apr 11, 20225 min read


Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
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Mar 28, 20226 min read


Will SOFR Be the Death of Jay Powell?
If the Fed causes another liquidity crisis as it ends QE and shrinks the balance sheet, then Chairman Powell should immediately resign.
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Mar 21, 20226 min read


QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads
There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when
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Mar 15, 20225 min read
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