The Institutional Risk Analyst

China bought a record-breaking amount of silver in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, driven by intense demand for solar manufacturing and retail investment. China imported approximately 1,536 to 1,626 tonnes of silver in the first quarter, confirming our view that silver is likely to continue to outperform gold significantly this year.

One aspect of the Powell press conference that has received too little attention was Powell's comments about Warsh possibly replacing Reserve Bank presidents. “That would be the beginning of the end of the Fed’s ability to make monetary policy independently,” he said, but the media did not notice. As we discussed in our interview with Alex Pollock, the 1935 amendments to the Federal Reserve Act made the chairman the CEO of the agency with unilateral power to remove Reserve Ba

This change in posture by President Trump opens the way for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed by the Senate perhaps by May 15th. More important, it provides a way for Powell to retire, which opens a second governor seat on the Board. Big question: Even with the investigation by the DOJ ended, does the Trump White House have the votes to get Warsh confirmed?

On Capitol Hill, Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee this week to consider his nomination as Fed Chairman. Warsh reiterated that Fed “monetary policy independence is essential.” But he got some rough questions from Democrats, especially ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) She asked whether he will be a “sock puppet” manipulated by President Trump. Warren called Warsh “uniquely ill-suited for the job as Fed chair,” but frankly Warren is uniquely unquali

Within a couple of months, the supplies of crucial petrochemical inputs currently on the water will be delivered and there will be nothing in the delivery pipeline after that point in time. Refined products are a far greater concern than oil. Kuwait, for example, produces a lot of aviation fuel for the EU. The Saudis are now shipping phosphates by truck to Yanbu, but this is not even a modest replacement for the disrupted supply chain in the Gulf.

The addition of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman does not change the ST calculus on the FOMC in terms of support for further rate cuts. Even as a former Governor, Warsh begins his term as leader of a minority on the Committee, especially if former Chairman Powell remains on the Board. This is why the inability of Trump to blame Powell for the astronomical increase in home prices, as we discuss below, is so remarkable.

The Fed's actions in 2008 and again in March 2020 were largely driven by the sole mandate of the central bank -- to keep the Treasury market opening and functioning.