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Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup
How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?
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Oct 12, 20227 min read


Large Banks: QT Winners & Losers
A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.
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Oct 2, 202210 min read


Update: The Bull Case for US Financials
Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...
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Sep 8, 20225 min read


Universal Banks | Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Raymond James & Stifel
Total noncore funding at GS was over $700 billion at the end of Q1 2022 vs $321 billion for MS.
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Aug 15, 20229 min read


Update: Ally Financial (ALLY)
The 5-year CDS spreads for ALLY were trading 280bp over the swaps curve compared with 120bp for Citigroup (C) & 150bp for CapitalOne
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Jul 13, 20224 min read


Update: US Banks Post-QE
Even as the FOMC raises interest rates, we caution our readers to be prepared for disappointment from banks near term
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Jun 15, 20225 min read


Update: Upstart Holdings & Cross River Bank
If investors and partner banks don’t want to buy UPST loans at current market rates, then the game is over in an originate to sell model
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Jun 2, 20227 min read


The IRA Bank Book | Outlook Q2 2022
The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...
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May 29, 20222 min read


Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
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Apr 20, 20225 min read


Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
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Apr 11, 20225 min read


Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
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Mar 28, 20226 min read


When "Force Majeure" Isn't Quite
The imposition of sanctions on Russia is not as comprehensive as some press reports suggest.
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Mar 1, 20223 min read


Profile: Citigroup (C)
Why does this bank exist? What market does it serve and how will it grow in the future?
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Jan 27, 20226 min read


Q4 Earnings | Big Banks & QE
In the short-run rising interest rates and spreads will help bank earnings. But where is the next credit hot spot?
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Jan 12, 20228 min read


The IRA Bank Book | Q3 2021
In the Q3 2021 edition of The IRA Bank Book, we document the slow destruction of US bank asset and equity returns by the FOMC.
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Sep 20, 202111 min read


Profile: PNC v U.S. Bancorp v Truist Financial
U.S. Bancorp, PNC and Truist Financial hold great value creation potential. But which is likely to realize this potential?
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Aug 27, 20219 min read


Profile: Bank of America (BAC)
BAC is the worst performing bank in the top-five US commercial banks and often underperforms the average for Peer Group 1.
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Jul 23, 20215 min read


Citigroup: Breaking Up is Hard to Do
Citi has drifted through years of government ownership and weak leadership by the board of directors
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Apr 22, 20216 min read


Update: Q1 2021 Bank Earnings
US banks are running at income levels that are less than half of a year ago...
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Mar 25, 20217 min read


Western Alliance + AmeriHome = Big Possibilities
We have long advocated the idea of an independent mortgage bank (IMB) combining with a strong regional lender
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Feb 22, 20215 min read
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