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Calculate the WAC of Bank of America
If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....
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May 29, 20237 min read


The Bank Deposit Run Is Not Over
The funding crisis affecting US banks is not over and very definitely not limited to smaller banks.
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Apr 19, 20237 min read


Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
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Apr 12, 20238 min read


Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
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Apr 9, 202312 min read


Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings
We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio
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Mar 17, 20238 min read


Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial
Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.
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Jan 30, 20237 min read


Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
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Jan 23, 20236 min read


AOCI: The Winter of Quantitative Easing
Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets
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Oct 24, 20223 min read


Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup
How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?
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Oct 12, 20227 min read


Large Banks: QT Winners & Losers
A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.
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Oct 2, 202210 min read


Update: The Bull Case for US Financials
Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...
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Sep 8, 20225 min read


Interest Rates & Bank Earnings
The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets
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Jul 19, 20226 min read


Top Five US Banks by Market Performance
In times of market volatility and suddenly ended delusions of easy money, the prudent path is to fly to quality.
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Jul 7, 20225 min read


Bank Earnings Setup: JPM, USB, WFC, BAC & Citi
Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet
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Jun 29, 20228 min read


Update: US Banks Post-QE
Even as the FOMC raises interest rates, we caution our readers to be prepared for disappointment from banks near term
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Jun 15, 20225 min read


The IRA Bank Book | Outlook Q2 2022
The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...
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May 29, 20222 min read


Weak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower Valuations
Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
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Apr 11, 20225 min read


Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
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Mar 28, 20226 min read


Profile: Citigroup (C)
Why does this bank exist? What market does it serve and how will it grow in the future?
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Jan 27, 20226 min read


Q4 Earnings | Big Banks & QE
In the short-run rising interest rates and spreads will help bank earnings. But where is the next credit hot spot?
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Jan 12, 20228 min read
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