The Institutional Risk Analyst

Who are the two most powerful people in the Trump White House?

Some of the largest banks by assets have dropped from the top quartile into the bottom half of the distribution for the top 100 banks

US history over the past century was largely written by liberal Democrats, who at least rhetorically opposed tariffs and embraced inflation

Is the flow of toxic waste pouring from busted private equity portfolios into credit trades a threat to insurance companies? Yup.

COOP and RKT, plus RDFN, creates an integrated business of realty, lending, servicing and asset management that is impressive

Many voices in the media and elsewhere have been predicting an economic slump since 2023. Didn’t happen, but 2025 is very different.

A more efficient mortgage backed securities market benefits everyone by lowering mortgage rates and making home ownership more affordable.

If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates

There is an old rule on Wall Street that industry sectors like airlines and auto manufacturers are trades rather than investments...

If we told you that the Trump White House was planning to end the issuance of all agency MBS, how do you think this will impact financials?

When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.

President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico. 

But what happens if the US simply picks up the proverbial football and goes home?

Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns

Like 2023 and 2024, the year 2025 may end up being relatively stable, yet investors remain worried about stealth externalities.

If Thomas Edison were alive today, would he tell Elon Musk to make electric cars with batteries?

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now reports up to National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett.

Kevin Hasset is now effectively Powell’s boss on everything other than monetary policy.

And just why do financial firms like HOOD, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) and Block (XYZ) talk about EBITDA in their investor materials?