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Q4 Earnings Update: JPM, Citi & WFC
Unless the FOMC relents and eases up on its massive purchases of Treasury securities and MBS, bank earnings are likely to decline further
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Jan 17, 20215 min read


Interest Rates, Spreads & Reserve Bank Presidents
Whenever interest rates rise, the amen chorus on Wall Street starts to warble about the benefits to banks.
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Jan 14, 20214 min read


Update: Square as a Bank
The evolution of fintech companies into regulated banks has implications for public market valuations...
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Jan 10, 20218 min read


Don't Assume Dollar Market Stability
The assumption of a stable financial and economic transition in the US during 2021 is perhaps the greatest risk facing the global markets.
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Jan 7, 20215 min read


Profile: Bank of America
We think that a strong case can be made that to enhance shareholder value, Moynihan and the BAC board ought to spin-off Merrill Lynch...
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Jan 4, 202110 min read


Outlook 2021: Financials & Credit Markets
New issue volumes in all of the major securities asset classes other than Treasury debt are trending lower as 2021 begins....
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Dec 28, 20208 min read


Joe Biden Must Fire FHFA Director Calabria
If you sent somebody to deliberately sabotage the US housing market, you could not find a better perpetrator than Director Calabria.
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Dec 21, 20206 min read


Wag the Fed: Will the TGA force Rates Negative?
The risk presented by changes in behavior compelled by COVID have only begun to emerge into view in urban commercial real estate...
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Dec 14, 20207 min read


Is there a Bull Case for US Bank Stocks?
In this edition of The IRA Bank Book for Q4 2020, we ask a basic question: Is there a bull case for US banks?
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Dec 10, 202013 min read


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Blinks on LIBOR
LIBOR is a price. SOFR is an economists’ wet dream one that lacks actual utility and substance...
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Dec 3, 20204 min read


The Myth of GSE Release
The prospective ejection of the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, from government control seems finally to be dead for the next four years.
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Nov 27, 20204 min read


Nonbank Update: PennyMac Financial Services
There is no actual disclosure from PSFI as to exactly how much of the firm’s default advances are being financed with bondholder funds
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Nov 23, 20207 min read


PNC + BBVA USA = Value Creation
By acquiring the $100 billion asset BBVA USA, PNC is doing the Federal Reserve Board and other regulators a favor.
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Nov 17, 20204 min read


Achim Dübel: Geopolitical Risks of the 2020 Election
Hans-Joachim Dübel of Finpolconsult.de in Berlin offers a geopolitical assessment of the return of the war party to power in Washington...
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Nov 15, 20204 min read


Nonbank Update: Rocket Companies
Because of forward liquidity and credit concerns, the window for IMBs to tap the public equity markets appears to have closed for now
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Nov 12, 20207 min read


Will Senate Republicans Force New York into Default?
Will Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Senate Republicans really push New York into default?
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Nov 9, 20206 min read


Post-Election Liquidity Risk: FSOC and the CSBS
An equally informal group of researchers within the Federal Reserve System is also in the vanguard of those warning about nonbank risk...
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Nov 5, 20207 min read


Bank Profiles: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs
Not all AUM is created equal. Even though GS claims to have twice the AUM of MS, it makes less than half the revenue....
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Nov 2, 20209 min read


A Conversation With David Kotok
Next we present "Alien vs Predator" by comparing Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)
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Oct 28, 20209 min read


Humphrey Hawkins: Inflation & Inequality
Congress needs to reconsider the dual-mandate contained in the 1978 Humphrey-Hawkins legislation...
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Oct 26, 20207 min read
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