The Institutional Risk Analyst

The real message to the FOMC is this: hike another 75bp in July and then let the Fed funds target sit for a few meetings...

The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets

Once again the US is coming out of a global crisis as the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry.

The 5-year CDS spreads for ALLY were trading 280bp over the swaps curve compared with 120bp for Citigroup (C) & 150bp for CapitalOne

Why did Elon Musk ever pretend that he was able to acquire TWTR, a transaction the US government would never allow.

In times of market volatility and suddenly ended delusions of easy money, the prudent path is to fly to quality.

Putting dollar leverage under crypto tokens – that is to say, under nothing – makes for infinite dollar risk.

Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet

A "normal" level for US bank deposits would be closer to $15 trillion than $19.9 trillion today.

NRZ must pay $400 million to Fortress to end the relationship with the external manager, a final act of squeezing NRZ shareholders

Issuing CMOs via the GSEs could help the FOMC out of its trading mess, but represents a monumental irony.

Even as the FOMC raises interest rates, we caution our readers to be prepared for disappointment from banks near term

Given the demand for safe assets, the true risk free rate today is probably less than zero. Ponder that Chairman Powell

We see an at least equal chance that margins will get squeezed for agency and MSR investors before they expand via higher interest rates

As a result of the adoption of "artificial intelligence," the 21st Century investor is mostly a victim in waiting.

If investors and partner banks don’t want to buy UPST loans at current market rates, then the game is over in an originate to sell model

By the end of August, the bugs are gone but the fish are still biting, making for a perfect way to end the summer.

Market risk realized today becomes credit risk tomorrow...

The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...

Net, net, the dynamics in the market are actually forcing interest rates down