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Four Big Risks Ahead in 2025
Indeed, if President Trump wants to be rid of Jerome Powell he can simply impeach him for violations of the Federal Reserve Act
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Dec 27, 202411 min read


Liquidity & Rates Fall as Trump Trades Beckon
What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.
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Dec 23, 20247 min read


The Trump Trade & Sovereign Ratings
What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?
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Dec 4, 20246 min read


Fed Fiddles as Liquidity Risk Looms
Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later
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Nov 26, 20248 min read


Profile: Bank of Hawaii & QE
The asset returns of BOH are substandard vs its peers. We cannot discern any reason for this save management lapses.
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Nov 20, 20246 min read


Trump, Deficits & Credit Default Swaps
As a practical matter, no Fed chairman or governor can function without the support of the White House and the US Treasury.
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Nov 18, 20247 min read


Fiat Currencies, GSEs & Presidents
Could President elect Donald Trump be facing a maxi market correction before inauguration day?
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Nov 13, 20246 min read


Fed Duration Trap Threatens Banks, SOMA
It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis.
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Nov 1, 20248 min read


Is Trump Bullish for Interest Rates? Pump & Dump for GSE and Fintech Stocks
You can tell lies and damn lies about the idea of releasing Fannie and Freddie, but the SEC and FINRA cannot and will not say a word.
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Oct 30, 20246 min read


Housing Finance Outlook; PennyMac, Mr. Cooper & NYCB/Flagstar
NYCB and the unsold rent-stabilized assets left over from the failure of SBNY are two little surprises waiting for the next POTUS.
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Oct 28, 20249 min read


Hurricanes, Insurance & the Cost of Risk
Many homes in FL no longer have adequate home owners insurance much less federal flood insurance.
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Oct 10, 20246 min read


Jim Rickards: The Treasury Should Buy Gold
The Treasury should begin to buy gold again to demonstrate that the dollar is real.
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Sep 30, 20247 min read


Update: Our Top Five Ideas
How will the sudden shift in Fed policy impact financials? Are we headed for a recession?
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Sep 24, 20246 min read


Powell FOMC Goes Big and Political
If President Donald Trump wins in November, he’ll be more than justified in demanding Jerome Powell’s immediate resignation.
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Sep 19, 20244 min read


Powell FOMC Folds on Inflation
As the federal debt rises, bank reserves must rise as well and with it inflation.
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Sep 9, 20249 min read


Banks: Passive Strategies Lag Active Management
In the third quarter of publishing the Indices, so far picking quality banks seems to matter more than following the passive ETF herd
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Sep 4, 20245 min read


Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?
SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.
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Aug 25, 20247 min read


Wine, Grapes & Inflation; WGA Bank Top 50 Index Q3 2024
The WGA Bank Top 50 is, well, the top half of the population, but far better in quality than the bottom quartile.
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Aug 5, 20245 min read


Yellen's FSOC: Housing Policy Dreams vs Mortgage Market Reality
Yellen's proposal for a backstop is merely a canard to help Treasury avoid another fiasco next time a Ginnie Mae issuer fails
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Jul 30, 20246 min read


Update: Pinnacle Financial & Synthetic Credit Risk Transfer
We hear in the channel that banks with festering multifamily exposures are paying north of 10% for similar CRT transactions.
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Jul 18, 20246 min read
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