The Institutional Risk Analyst

The real threat of tariffs announced by Trump is not inflation, but rather a LT decline in the dollar as the global reserve currency

GS had not appeared in the top 25 since we began the indices a year ago, while MS had made it three times.

In the strange world of Washington, speaking truth in public is a capital crime. Truth is often revealed accidentally.

The SVB duration management from 2020 onward was recklessly negligent by any reasonable standard

Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.

With Gov Michael Barr stepping down from bank supervision, perhaps Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is more willing to test liquidity lower bound

As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.

Indeed, if President Trump wants to be rid of Jerome Powell he can simply impeach him for violations of the Federal Reserve Act

What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.

What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?

Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later

The asset returns of BOH are substandard vs its peers. We cannot discern any reason for this save management lapses.

As a practical matter, no Fed chairman or governor can function without the support of the White House and the US Treasury.

Could President elect Donald Trump be facing a maxi market correction before inauguration day?

It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis. 

You can tell lies and damn lies about the idea of releasing Fannie and Freddie, but the SEC and FINRA cannot and will not say a word. 

NYCB and the unsold rent-stabilized assets left over from the failure of SBNY are two little surprises waiting for the next POTUS.

Many homes in FL no longer have adequate home owners insurance much less federal flood insurance.

The Treasury should begin to buy gold again to demonstrate that the dollar is real.

How will the sudden shift in Fed policy impact financials? Are we headed for a recession?