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Don't Fight the Fed -- Yet
Remember when Fed Chair Yellen expressed surprise that more young people were not buying homes?
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Feb 9, 20214 min read


Profile: Bank OZK -- It's All About the NIM
Significantly, OZK predicts shrinking CRE loan volumes in 2021....
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Feb 3, 20216 min read


Interview: Chris Abate, CEO of Redwood Trust
magine if the Fed started margin calling the big banks in response to the April market selloff rather than supporting the system!
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Feb 1, 20219 min read


Update: Commercial & Residential Real Estate, MSRs
Most of midtown Manhattan’s offices and other structures are unused. Commuter volumes are 10% of pre-COVID levels.
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Jan 29, 20218 min read


Jim Parrott on GSE Reform and the Road Ahead
The GSEs will never be worth more than about $250 billion regardless of how much additional taxpayer money is contributed....
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Jan 25, 20218 min read


Q4 Earnings Update: JPM, Citi & WFC
Unless the FOMC relents and eases up on its massive purchases of Treasury securities and MBS, bank earnings are likely to decline further
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Jan 17, 20215 min read


Update: Square as a Bank
The evolution of fintech companies into regulated banks has implications for public market valuations...
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Jan 10, 20218 min read


Outlook 2021: Financials & Credit Markets
New issue volumes in all of the major securities asset classes other than Treasury debt are trending lower as 2021 begins....
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Dec 28, 20208 min read


Bank Profiles: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs
Not all AUM is created equal. Even though GS claims to have twice the AUM of MS, it makes less than half the revenue....
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Nov 2, 20209 min read


Humphrey Hawkins: Inflation & Inequality
Congress needs to reconsider the dual-mandate contained in the 1978 Humphrey-Hawkins legislation...
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Oct 26, 20207 min read


Negative Returns are Now in US Mortgages
Don’t get distracted by the rising rate song from the Street. We don’t look for short or medium term interest rates to rise in the near term
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Oct 7, 20205 min read


Bank Profile: Ally Financial Inc
ALLY has all of the required attributes for inclusion in The IRA Bank Dead Pool....
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Sep 28, 202011 min read


Asset Inflation Soars as Deflation Persists
The deflationary impact of COVID continues to ripple through the global financial system.
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Sep 24, 20204 min read


Bank Profile: Citigroup
In November 2019 we published a negative risk profile for Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C). We reaffirm the negative risk profile...
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Sep 22, 202012 min read


Powell Fed Embraces Monetary Relativity
The change in the FOMC’s stance also reflects a rebuke to the remaining conservatives within the decidedly left-of-center Fed system...
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Sep 21, 20205 min read


Financial Repression and Inflation Targets
No matter who wins the presidential election in November, have no doubt that Chairman Powell is the most important man in town...
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Sep 14, 20204 min read


The IRA Bank Book Q3 2020
Quarterly net income for all FDIC-insured commercial banks fell 70% YOY...
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Aug 31, 202012 min read


Payments, Money Velocity and Bunk
There are many dimensions to the world of payments, some which are banal other that are vitally important
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Aug 24, 20204 min read


LIBOR is Dead. Long Live SOFR! Really?
Why not simply fix the existing LIBOR? Well, that would require the folks at the Fed and other central banks to admit that they were wrong
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Aug 21, 20204 min read


Q-3 2020 Bank/Mortgage Earnings Preview
We expect to see lending volumes slow somewhat for the balance of 2020
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Aug 17, 20207 min read
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