The Institutional Risk Analyst

If you back reserve releases out of Q1 2021 bank results, revenues and earnings were down and trend is headed lower due to QE

Every time there’s a critical problem in the banking system due to banker malfeasance, the Fed steps in to paper it over....

The Fed’s chief concern is keeping the Treasury debt market open and functional. Liquidity includes cash and risk-free collateral...

Why did the Fed feel the need to absorb $351 billion in cash yesterday via reverse repurchase (RRP) transactions?

Citi has drifted through years of government ownership and weak leadership by the board of directors

Sooner or later someone has to eat those forgone cash flow losses....

Simply stated, US banks are twice as expensive as they were a year ago looking at earnings and assets....

The mere fact of vaccination, effective or no, is probably worth several points of GDP simply by improving the national mood.

We continue to believe that issuers and funds should be accumulating conventional servicing. Rates bottomed in February...

Given that IMBs now service two-thirds of all 1-4 family residential mortgage loans, the risk to the nonbanks from COVID is growing...

US banks are running at income levels that are less than half of a year ago...

“Time to turn on the lights and find the rest of the cockroaches”

We anticipate significant loan loss reserve releases back into income in Q1 2021 and thereafter as banks adjust their loan loss provisions

Think of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as a giant sump pump, sucking the available duration out of the bond market...

This is a really bad time to be focused on macroeconomic data....

We have long advocated the idea of an independent mortgage bank (IMB) combining with a strong regional lender

In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we compare two major players in the residential mortgage servicing space, New...

Significantly, OZK predicts shrinking CRE loan volumes in 2021....

magine if the Fed started margin calling the big banks in response to the April market selloff rather than supporting the system!

Most of midtown Manhattan’s offices and other structures are unused. Commuter volumes are 10% of pre-COVID levels.