The Institutional Risk Analyst

Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023

The big news this week starts with the poor showing by Rocket Companies (RKT), reporting a loss for Q3 2022 and a big decline in volumes.

The cult of ever falling interest rates goes back 50 years and spans the terms of Fed chairs back to Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker...

Like COOP, volumes are down dramatically from 2021 but MSR values and cash flows from servicing are rising

Despite the outlook for the industry, COOP continues to be one of the better performing names in our mortgage surveillance group.

Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets

Will the market risk created by quantitative tightening (QT) tip over a large bank or nonbank financial firm?

How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?

The increase in interest rates towards 5% for federal funds may turn out to be permanent for several years

With the Fed doubling down on rate increases, the pressure on all manner of nonbank finance companies and fintech platforms is growing.

A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.

SWCH is performing above the rate of total returns for the data center REITs, according to Nareit

Until the FOMC raises interest rates to more “normal” levels, we don’t expect actual volatility to decline.

The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent

As the scale of Fed open market operations grew since 2008, volatility has increased, rendering the adjustment from QE to QT problematic

We expect to see reasonably strong earnings for commercial lenders in Q3 2022 as loan yields slowly rise...

The entire mortgage industry will have a single point of failure with the ICE/BKI combination

Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...

The assumption of price volatility on the part of consumers and business managers is at the heart of inflation expectations

If the merger of Black Knight and Intercontinental Exchange goes through, the expanded ICE monopoly will simply give POS tools away for free