Recessions Signs in Texas & China
The mood in the Dallas mortgage community is subdued, much like the atmosphere after an especially good party.
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2023 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Fintech
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 14
- 3 min
Housing Finance Outlook Q4 2023
Baring some emergency, the Fed seems on track to keep interest rates at current levels indefintely.
515 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 1
- 6 min
Update: PennyMac Financial Services
If we are marking balance sheet assets to actual market in the age of deflation, what of the heavily modeled world of servicing assets?
474 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 26
- 9 min
Interest Rates, Fintech & MSRs
Regulatory skepticism about mortgage assets could effect financing rates for lenders, which means higher mortgage rates for consumers.
499 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 15
- 7 min
Bank Earnings Takeaways -- JPM, WFC and Citi
Bank earnings can be best described as cautiously mediocre, but as usual the Street proclaimed that three banks "beat the estimates"
709 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 9
- 7 min
Texas Capital Bank v Ginnie Mae
The legal dispute between Ginnie Mae and Texas Capital Bank makes additional defaults by HECM lenders more likely...
880 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 2
- 6 min
Credit Suisse\UBS to Apollo: Bye, Bye
UBS ultimately seems intent upon running off the remaining US mortgage assets, including a few billion in Ginnie Mae MSR financings
827 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 18
- 7 min
Does PacWest + Banc of California + Warburg Pincus = Value?
The Q2 2023 disclosure for PACW suggests an institution that is bleeding cash and operating in extremis...
622 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 4
- 6 min
RITM Goes Multi Asset; TCBI Shrinks Assets, Grows Returns
TCBI needs to keep efficiency in the 50s if they want to survive the coming drought in mortgage lending.
419 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 28
- 5 min
Washington Trip Notes; Mr. Cooper & PennyMac Financial
The last Treasury Secretary that tried to extend the maturities of US government debt was Jack Lew (2013-2017). Yellen missed an opportunity
644 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 20
- 5 min
Update: U.S. Bancorp & Goldman Sachs
We expect to see USB trading at a discount to JPM and Peer Group 1 until the bank improves its operating leverage to pre-COVID levels.
530 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 15
- 5 min
Bank Earnings: JPM, WFC & Citi
JPM has an impressive lead in earnings and growth over WFC and C, neither one of which is positioned to catch up with Jamie Dimon in 2023.
493 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 8
- 7 min
Mortgage Lenders Face Return of a Purchase Market
The “winners” in the mortgage sector will be those larger players with equally large servicing books that can access bank funding
898 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 26
- 8 min
Update: Mortgage Lenders, TBA Contango & MSRs
We look for lower prices for legacy MBS and MSRs as new allocations are used up and P&Ls sink deeper into the red...
1,081 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 29
- 7 min
Calculate the WAC of Bank of America
If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....
2,727 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 25
- 8 min
Interest Rates, MSRs, Mortgage Putbacks & FICO Scores
Persistent talk about a 5.5% 30-year mortgage rate later this year is badly wrong as TBAs flip from 5.5% to 6% coupons for delivery in June
1,109 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 21
- 2 min
Mortgage Rates Headed for 7% as Residential Defaults Slowly Rise
We think that further Fed tightening, plus sales of MBS from FDIC and banks generally, may force mortgage rates higher into the 7% range
985 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 15
- 6 min
Fed Asymmetry Threatens Credit Crisis
The price volatility injected into markets by the Fed is a primary reason why the FDIC cannot easily find buyers for smaller banks.
3,818 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 10
- 8 min
Is USA still a "AAA" Credit? Really? Update: Rithm Capital
When interest rates eventually fall those late vintage mortgage loans with 6% coupons will evaporate like spring snow in the sunshine
1,497 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 30
- 6 min
Update: Mr. Cooper & PennyMac Financial
Both PFSI and COOP are navigating the current market well, but we have questions about where the former is headed.
1,230 views
Christopher Whalen
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