The Bear Case for Ginnie Mae Issuers
The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent
The Institutional Risk Analyst
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R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 12
- 8 min
Interview: David Stevens on GNMA Capital Rule & ICE + BKI
The entire mortgage industry will have a single point of failure with the ICE/BKI combination
1,543 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 29
- 1 min
Report: "McCargo Rule" Threatens Government Loan Market
New Ginnie Mae rule will push nonbanks into credit default on bank warehouse lines and debt indentures
631 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 25
- 6 min
Update: Blend Labs & loanDepot Inc.
If the merger of Black Knight and Intercontinental Exchange goes through, the expanded ICE monopoly will simply give POS tools away for free
300 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 24
- 6 min
Interview: Scott Olson of Community Home Lenders of America
The banks have left the government market. Now Ginnie Mae seems bound and determined to drive the IMBs out of government lending as well
616 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 21
- 7 min
Interest Rates, FinTechs & MSRs
Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over
475 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 27
- 5 min
Update: Mr. Cooper Group
We agree with the assessment by Leon Cooperman of COOP management that this firm is one of the best positioned IMBs in the industry...
335 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 21
- 5 min
Should the FOMC Pause Rate Hikes After July?
The real message to the FOMC is this: hike another 75bp in July and then let the Fed funds target sit for a few meetings...
590 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 19
- 6 min
Interest Rates & Bank Earnings
The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets
341 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 22
- 5 min
New Residential Pivots, Gets "Rithm"
NRZ must pay $400 million to Fortress to end the relationship with the external manager, a final act of squeezing NRZ shareholders
500 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 20
- 8 min
The Fed and Housing
Issuing CMOs via the GSEs could help the FOMC out of its trading mess, but represents a monumental irony.
1,417 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 15
- 5 min
Update: US Banks Post-QE
Even as the FOMC raises interest rates, we caution our readers to be prepared for disappointment from banks near term
388 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 29
- 2 min
The IRA Bank Book | Outlook Q2 2022
The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...
393 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 25
- 9 min
FOMC vs TGA; PennyMac Financial & United Wholesale Mortgage
Net, net, the dynamics in the market are actually forcing interest rates down
605 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 16
- 7 min
Interview: Dan Sogorka of Sagent Lending Technologies
The new technology that powers the Sagent-Cooper vision for servicing is already proven in the market
540 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 11
- 8 min
Does ICE + Black Knight = Shareholder Value?
ICE buying the revenue streams represented by BKI is a big bet on yesterday, not a bold initiative to change the mortgage industry
416 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 6
- 4 min
The Next Trade: Banks, Nonbanks and Mortgage Servicing Rights
Many of the startups, investment flows and SPAC transactions that proliferated in 2020-2021 are likely to be casualties in the next several
625 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 4
- 2 min
The Residential Mortgage Finance Top Twenty Seven
Who is going to acquire and restructure Blend Labs (BLND) before this newbie-fintech-something runs out of cash?
307 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 31
- 5 min
Why the FOMC Cannot Sell its Mortgage Bonds
With MBS prices falling, the FOMC may have to accept the natural runoff rate for the MBS in the SOMA for many years to come
3,415 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 15
- 5 min
QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads
There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when
842 views