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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2025 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance


Time to Short the AI Bubble?
Researchers at Apple just released a paper that throws cold water on the "reasoning" capabilities of the latest, most powerful large language AI models. In the paper, a team of machine learning experts makes the case that the AI industry is grossly overstating the ability of its top AI models, including OpenAI's o3, Anthropic's Claude 3.7, and Google's Gemini.
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Jun 116 min read
486 views


Annuities Migrate Offshore? Silicon Valley Syndrome and Bank of America
Even a small decrease in prepayments due to higher LT interest rates could significantly impact the fair value of the Bank of America mortgage portfolio, forcing unrealized losses higher. If LT rates continue to rise, one veteran banker told The IRA yesterday, then BAC and several other large banks are going to start to literally shake apart from unrealized losses on COVID era assets.
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May 297 min read
601 views


The Trumpian Wave & Systemic Risk
The common penny stocks of these two appendages of the state, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are up over 600% in the past year, generating huge gains for the likes of Bill Ackman and John Paulson. Bitcoin is up a paltry 50% LTM. Indeed, much like old fintech stocks such as PayPal (PYPL) and Block Inc (XTZ), bitcoin seems to be losing the special novelty that always seems to drive these manic stories. Is bitcoin now just another boring Wall Street ETF?
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May 256 min read
655 views


The Single Fed Mandate & Bank Stocks
The Fed's actions in 2008 and again in March 2020 were largely driven by the sole mandate of the central bank -- to keep the Treasury market opening and functioning.
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May 149 min read
741 views


Interview: Henry Smyth on the Return of Gold as Global Reserve Asset
Central banks have changed their posture from net sellers of gold to net buyers. Central banks are not price sensitive regarding gold, they are sensitive to volume and tonnage of available gold.
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May 710 min read
648 views


Bank Stocks Down | WGA Bank Top 100 Index: Q2 2025
TD was up about 6% over the past three months, the only name in our test group with a positive three-month market return, of note.
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May 46 min read
322 views


Trading Points: Banks, Interest Rates & MSRs
Some of the smaller holders of MSRs may ask themselves if selling right now is not the best strategy over a 36-48 month horizon.Â
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Apr 168 min read
489 views


Trump Volatility: Go to Cash? Or Go Shopping?
The paper money economy created by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933 trapped Americans and the world into using fiat dollars.
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Apr 137 min read
796 views


Trade, Taxes & GSE Release
Who are the two most powerful people in the Trump White House?
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Apr 94 min read
377 views


AIG Reflux: Private Equity Collapse Threatens US Insurers
Is the flow of toxic waste pouring from busted private equity portfolios into credit trades a threat to insurance companies? Yup.
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Apr 36 min read
3,480 views


Q: Which Top Seven Bank is Most Vulnerable in a Recession?
If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.
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Mar 2314 min read
682 views


Trump, Powell and the Banks
Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates
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Mar 206 min read
455 views


Silicon Valley and the Large Bank Dead Pool
When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.
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Mar 97 min read
728 views


Trading Points: Trump, Housing & Private Credit
President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico.Â
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Mar 57 min read
446 views


Trump, Trade Deficits & the Dollar
But what happens if the US simply picks up the proverbial football and goes home?
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Mar 35 min read
524 views


Trumpian Wave Threatens Key Markets
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now reports up to National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett.
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Feb 207 min read
686 views


Powell Fed Dithers on Inflation as the Trump Rally Fizzles
Kevin Hasset is now effectively Powell’s boss on everything other than monetary policy.
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Feb 188 min read
366 views


QT + Lower Federal Outlays = ?
Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling
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Feb 115 min read
371 views


The Bottom Quartile: FLG, KEY, LOB & TCBI
A look at the bottom quarter of WGA Bank Top 100 Index. We view TCBI as a work in progress. But kudos to KEY...
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Feb 67 min read
192 views


Trump, Musk & the Dollar
The real threat of tariffs announced by Trump is not inflation, but rather a LT decline in the dollar as the global reserve currency
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Feb 46 min read
513 views
Christopher Whalen
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