The Institutional Risk Analyst

Researchers at Apple just released a paper that throws cold water on the "reasoning" capabilities of the latest, most powerful large language AI models. In the paper, a team of machine learning experts makes the case that the AI industry is grossly overstating the ability of its top AI models, including OpenAI's o3, Anthropic's Claude 3.7, and Google's Gemini.

Even a small decrease in prepayments due to higher LT interest rates could significantly impact the fair value of the Bank of America mortgage portfolio, forcing unrealized losses higher. If LT rates continue to rise, one veteran banker told The IRA yesterday, then BAC and several other large banks are going to start to literally shake apart from unrealized losses on COVID era assets.

The common penny stocks of these two appendages of the state, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are up over 600% in the past year, generating huge gains for the likes of Bill Ackman and John Paulson. Bitcoin is up a paltry 50% LTM. Indeed, much like old fintech stocks such as PayPal (PYPL) and Block Inc (XTZ), bitcoin seems to be losing the special novelty that always seems to drive these manic stories. Is bitcoin now just another boring Wall Street ETF?

The Fed's actions in 2008 and again in March 2020 were largely driven by the sole mandate of the central bank -- to keep the Treasury market opening and functioning.

Central banks have changed their posture from net sellers of gold to net buyers. Central banks are not price sensitive regarding gold, they are sensitive to volume and tonnage of available gold.

TD was up about 6% over the past three months, the only name in our test group with a positive three-month market return, of note.

Some of the smaller holders of MSRs may ask themselves if selling right now is not the best strategy over a 36-48 month horizon. 

The paper money economy created by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933 trapped Americans and the world into using fiat dollars.

Who are the two most powerful people in the Trump White House?

Is the flow of toxic waste pouring from busted private equity portfolios into credit trades a threat to insurance companies? Yup.

If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates

When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.

President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico. 

But what happens if the US simply picks up the proverbial football and goes home?

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now reports up to National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett.

Kevin Hasset is now effectively Powell’s boss on everything other than monetary policy.

Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling

A look at the bottom quarter of WGA Bank Top 100 Index. We view TCBI as a work in progress. But kudos to KEY...

The real threat of tariffs announced by Trump is not inflation, but rather a LT decline in the dollar as the global reserve currency