Chairman Powell Jumps the Shark
The markets got their rate cut over the past six months and now may have to give some of that back.
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2024 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 16 min
The Bull Case for Large Banks
If you believe that there is no recession coming in 2025, what is the logical response from an informed investment professional?
518 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 162 min
IRA Bank Book Q3 2024 Industry Survey
The Q3 interest rate rally still leaves the industry with a negative
capital position since the average securities yield is only 3%
361 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 217 min
New & Old Names in Nonbank Finance
In dollar terms, the moves in 2023 were tiny vs the post March rally in 2020.
473 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 239 min
Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC
Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.
1,425 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 176 min
Update: BMO + Bank of the West = ?
BMO arguably has the weakest reserve position among the large Canadian banks....
982 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 129 min
Will Credit Risk Transfer Save the Banks? Are MSRs Overvalued?
How much in synthetic CRT transactions will be done in 2024? Our best guess is many hundreds of billions globally...
754 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 76 min
Faux Bear Raids on OZK and AX? But More Trouble Ahead for CRE Equity
We remind readers that unrealized losses on securities are still a bigger problem for banks than CRE.
615 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 46 min
Inside the Private Credit Trade
Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.
1,213 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 287 min
Inflation & CRE Deflation Too? UMB Financial + Heartland = ?
With a budget deficit projected to be $1.8 trillion in 2024, the odds of the FOMC actually controlling inflation are pretty low.Â
766 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 246 min
Interest Rates, Deficits & Inflation
We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025.Â
816 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 227 min
MBA Aftermath; Profile: Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)
When NYC is forced to recognize reality, it will already be too late to avoid another fiscal crisis.
636 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 137 min
Yellen FSOC Punts on Mortgage Servicers; WGA Bottom 25 Banks
Are there bank bargains down in the cellar waiting to be discovered?
907 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 217 min
TCBI v Ginnie Mae Goes to Trial | Outlook for Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
McCargo's actions and the fact that the case has not been dismissed in its entirety is very unhelpful given current market conditions.
1,179 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 197 min
Top-Five Banks: Q1 '24 Earnings Setup
We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...
586 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 1311 min
Should We Resurrect the Reconstruction Finance Corporation?
We can all pretend that the collapse of valuations for many commercial and multifamily properties is not a major problem. Or we can act now
1,528 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 410 min
Assume Loss Given Default > 100% | PennyMac & Western Alliance Bank
Q: What do Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and New York Community Bank have in common? Auditor, KPMG.
2,606 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 17 min
NYCB Cleans House Badly, NAIC Gives Insurers Pass on Realized Losses
Sad to say, the business at NYCB is doing better than you'd think reading the bank's absurd disclosure.
1,893 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 205 min
With Commercial Property, the Equity Goes First
The key thing to remember with commercial real estate is the change in price volatility and direction that has occurred since COVID.
1,272 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 187 min
Banks Slow Walk Commercial Real Estate Losses
As reflected in the valuations for JPM, WFC and BXMT, institutional investors are still not that concerned about commercial real est losses
762 views
Christopher Whalen
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