The Bull Case for Large Banks
If you believe that there is no recession coming in 2025, what is the logical response from an informed investment professional?
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 246 min
Update: Our Top Five Ideas
How will the sudden shift in Fed policy impact financials? Are we headed for a recession?
606 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 212 min
Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
702 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 257 min
Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?
SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.
707 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 217 min
New & Old Names in Nonbank Finance
In dollar terms, the moves in 2023 were tiny vs the post March rally in 2020.
473 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 127 min
The Powell Hedge Fund Drives Private Market Instability
In 2019, the FOMC essentially nationalized the US money markets, eliminating private price discovery for a representation of a market.
870 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 86 min
Market Volatility and Loan Defaults
The market tantrum which began on Friday was largely over by the market close on the following Tuesday.
1,172 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 46 min
Inside the Private Credit Trade
Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.
1,213 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 22 min
WGA Releases Bank Quarterly Q2 2024
The unrealized losses on COVID era securities remain a huge problem for banks large and small, especially if long-term interest rates rise
790 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 157 min
The Bull Case for Large Banks
Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?
562 views
R. Christopher Whalen
May 59 min
Debt Deflation in CRE? PFSI, COOP & RKT
If the run-of-the-mill Republic First interest rate mark is 13.3% of assets that is not just wiping out one bank’s 8% capital but also FDIC
686 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 247 min
The Death of Leverage; What's the WAC of Bank America?
The yield on BAC's $320 billion commercial and industrial (C&I) book was just 5.4% or more than 150bp below peer at year-end 2023.
932 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 1110 min
GSE Release? Really? Update: Ally Financial
You take the GSEs out of conservatorship, the big banks led by JPMorgan and U.S. Bancorp will own the conventional loan market
1,930 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 137 min
Inside the WGA Bank Top 10 Index
So what makes the WGA Bank Top 10 unique? Below we provide some quantitative and qualitative comments on each of the ten best US banks
606 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 186 min
Home Mortgage Rates Falling? Really?
If President Trump starts talking about fixing the federal budget deficit and redeveloping moribund urban real estate, he’d win in November
1,502 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 17 min
NYCB Cleans House Badly, NAIC Gives Insurers Pass on Realized Losses
Sad to say, the business at NYCB is doing better than you'd think reading the bank's absurd disclosure.
1,893 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 306 min
Good, Bad & Ugly: AXP, SOFI & BAC
AXP is a premium stock that is best acquired when people think, incorrectly, that the world is ending.
853 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 298 min
EVs Wane, Fintech Sputters & COF Dumps Commercial Mortgages
Now let’s take a look at how some members of the banking and fintech sector are doing in the first month of 2024.
806 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 115 min
Bank Earnings Setup Q4 2023
Look for falling rates sooner rather than later as the Fed and other agencies prepare to resolve more bank failures in 2024.
618 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 31, 20237 min
End of Fintech? Biden GSE Release?
Is AFRM maturing from a hot new fintech entrant to a familiar face headed for a bank license?? Yikes.
1,511 views
Christopher Whalen
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