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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2025 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance


The First Crypto Currency: The Dollar
When you buy a crypto currency, you buy an option on finding a greater fool, but nothing more, a transaction that would have provoked contempt in Lincoln’s day.

R. Christopher Whalen
2 days ago8 min read
210 views


The Single Fed Mandate & Bank Stocks
The Fed's actions in 2008 and again in March 2020 were largely driven by the sole mandate of the central bank -- to keep the Treasury market opening and functioning.

R. Christopher Whalen
5 days ago9 min read
464 views


Should Treasury Accept Debt for Tax Payments? Bank OZK Update
When President Donald Trump says the Fed should cut interest rates, he is probably right – at least speaking from the perspective of the real estate markets.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 287 min read
608 views


Trading Points: Banks, Interest Rates & MSRs
Some of the smaller holders of MSRs may ask themselves if selling right now is not the best strategy over a 36-48 month horizon.Â

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 168 min read
477 views


Trump Volatility: Go to Cash? Or Go Shopping?
The paper money economy created by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933 trapped Americans and the world into using fiat dollars.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 137 min read
782 views


Trump, Tariffs, Silver and the American Dream
US history over the past century was largely written by liberal Democrats, who at least rhetorically opposed tariffs and embraced inflation

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 68 min read
822 views


Trump, Powell and the Banks
Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 206 min read
448 views


Banks Slide as Asset Sales Accelerate
If we told you that the Trump White House was planning to end the issuance of all agency MBS, how do you think this will impact financials?

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 115 min read
637 views


Silicon Valley and the Large Bank Dead Pool
When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 97 min read
723 views


Trump, Trade Deficits & the Dollar
But what happens if the US simply picks up the proverbial football and goes home?

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 35 min read
517 views


WGA Releases Q1 2025 Bank Industry Survey | Higher for Longer May Throttle Deposit Growth
Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns

R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 282 min read
200 views


Powell Fed Dithers on Inflation as the Trump Rally Fizzles
Kevin Hasset is now effectively Powell’s boss on everything other than monetary policy.

R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 188 min read
365 views


QT + Lower Federal Outlays = ?
Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling

R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 115 min read
371 views


The Fed & GSEs: Questions Asked and Unanswered in Washington
In the strange world of Washington, speaking truth in public is a capital crime. Truth is often revealed accidentally.

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 237 min read
550 views


Trump, Risk and Liquidity
With Gov Michael Barr stepping down from bank supervision, perhaps Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is more willing to test liquidity lower bound

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 87 min read
174 views


Four Big Risks Ahead in 2025
Indeed, if President Trump wants to be rid of Jerome Powell he can simply impeach him for violations of the Federal Reserve Act

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 27, 202411 min read
859 views


Liquidity & Rates Fall as Trump Trades Beckon
What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 23, 20247 min read
450 views


The Trump Trade & Sovereign Ratings
What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 4, 20246 min read
603 views


Profile: Bank of Hawaii & QE
The asset returns of BOH are substandard vs its peers. We cannot discern any reason for this save management lapses.

R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 20, 20246 min read
439 views


Trump, Deficits & Credit Default Swaps
As a practical matter, no Fed chairman or governor can function without the support of the White House and the US Treasury.

R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 18, 20247 min read
961 views
Christopher Whalen
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