Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs
The big take away from Q4 2022 earnings is that credit expenses are headed higher and at a brisk pace
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 25
- 8 min
Silvergate, Reverse RPs and the “Theology of Prosperity”
Crypto, of course, is not an asset as much as a bad idea that was given life by Quantitative Easing
705 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 23
- 6 min
Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
337 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 16
- 7 min
Goldman Drops Restatement; Jamie Dimon Drops the Ball on "Frank"
The Fed’s de facto embrace of inflation encourages misallocation of economic resources on a grand scale....
627 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 13
- 6 min
Update: JPMorganChase & Wells Fargo
But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...
432 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 22, 2022
- 6 min
GNMA, FNMA Seize Assets from Reverse Mortgage Funding Estate
The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.
975 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 16, 2022
- 6 min
The Year That Was: 2022
Many in the Buy Side chorus are looking forward to lower interest rates, but we are concerned that next year could really be about solvency
605 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 12, 2022
- 4 min
Rising Interest Rates? Really?
Since 2008, dollar swap spreads have traded below Treasury yields, suggesting a persistent demand for dollars coming from offshore.
755 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 6, 2022
- 1 min
Bank M2M Losses Surge in Q3 to $347 Billion
Rapidly rising interest rates in Q3 2022 pushed down the tangible capital for the US banking industry to negative $1.9 trillion
434 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 28, 2022
- 6 min
Is JPMorgan Chase Insolvent?
The US banking industry has been rendered insolvent by the Federal Open Market Committee
5,331 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 25, 2022
- 9 min
Crypto Crash Signal End of Fintech?
Despite all the hyperbole, the great crypto fraud was a small game, like the party poker that many crypto enthusiasts share in common
329 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 17, 2022
- 7 min
Extension Risk Threatens US Banks
There are literally dozens of banks in the US made insolvent by the policy moves of the FOMC over the past year.
1,151 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 10, 2022
- 5 min
Update: Crypto Fraud Crumbles as Bank Stocks Surge
Crypto has gone from a sort-of juiced up equity strategy to a distressed credit story in just hours.
428 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 7, 2022
- 7 min
Brief: The Return of Home Equity Loans
Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023
1,275 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 2, 2022
- 6 min
Terminal Rates & Conflicted Economists
The cult of ever falling interest rates goes back 50 years and spans the terms of Fed chairs back to Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker...
668 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 28, 2022
- 7 min
Update: Credit Suisse (CS) & PennyMac Financial (PFSI)
Like COOP, volumes are down dramatically from 2021 but MSR values and cash flows from servicing are rising
843 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 26, 2022
- 4 min
Update: Mr. Cooper (COOP)
Despite the outlook for the industry, COOP continues to be one of the better performing names in our mortgage surveillance group.
269 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 24, 2022
- 3 min
AOCI: The Winter of Quantitative Easing
Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets
697 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 17, 2022
- 7 min
Will the FOMC Break the Financials?
Will the market risk created by quantitative tightening (QT) tip over a large bank or nonbank financial firm?
739 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 27, 2022
- 3 min
Short QE, Long Volatility
Until the FOMC raises interest rates to more “normal” levels, we don’t expect actual volatility to decline.
427 views
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