The Institutional Risk Analyst

When Ray Dalio says to be afraid of the bond market, he is asking a question that belongs in the mid-1970s, when the dollar still competed with other currencies and US interest rates were actually affected by interest rates in other nations. But today, with many of the other industrial nations led by Japan, China and the EU literally drowning in public debt, the US is still the leader of the parade.

When you buy a crypto currency, you buy an option on finding a greater fool, but nothing more, a transaction that would have provoked contempt in Lincoln’s day.

The Fed's actions in 2008 and again in March 2020 were largely driven by the sole mandate of the central bank -- to keep the Treasury market opening and functioning.

When President Donald Trump says the Fed should cut interest rates, he is probably right – at least speaking from the perspective of the real estate markets.

Some of the smaller holders of MSRs may ask themselves if selling right now is not the best strategy over a 36-48 month horizon. 

The paper money economy created by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933 trapped Americans and the world into using fiat dollars.

US history over the past century was largely written by liberal Democrats, who at least rhetorically opposed tariffs and embraced inflation

Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates

If we told you that the Trump White House was planning to end the issuance of all agency MBS, how do you think this will impact financials?

When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.

But what happens if the US simply picks up the proverbial football and goes home?

Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns

Kevin Hasset is now effectively Powell’s boss on everything other than monetary policy.

Banks continue to show a strong preference for late vintage loans over securities, a fact which may cause loan yields to continue falling

In the strange world of Washington, speaking truth in public is a capital crime. Truth is often revealed accidentally.

With Gov Michael Barr stepping down from bank supervision, perhaps Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is more willing to test liquidity lower bound

Indeed, if President Trump wants to be rid of Jerome Powell he can simply impeach him for violations of the Federal Reserve Act

What does the upsurge in repo rates at the end of September suggest? None of the media who supposedly cover the Fed seem able to ask.

What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?

The asset returns of BOH are substandard vs its peers. We cannot discern any reason for this save management lapses.