The IRA Bank Book | Q2 2023 Industry Outlook
How much of book value do banks lose
as the Fed adjusts interest rates to fight inflation?
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- 5 days ago
- 4 min
First Take on FDIC Bank Data
If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem
962 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 29
- 7 min
Calculate the WAC of Bank of America
If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....
2,481 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 25
- 8 min
Interest Rates, MSRs, Mortgage Putbacks & FICO Scores
Persistent talk about a 5.5% 30-year mortgage rate later this year is badly wrong as TBAs flip from 5.5% to 6% coupons for delivery in June
1,047 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 23
- 7 min
PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks
To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate
2,270 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 17
- 5 min
Banks, Commercial Real Estate & Credit
The Fed's 5.5% increase in short-term interest rates has thrown the pricing for trillions of dollars in real estate into disarray.
1,073 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 15
- 6 min
Fed Asymmetry Threatens Credit Crisis
The price volatility injected into markets by the Fed is a primary reason why the FDIC cannot easily find buyers for smaller banks.
3,436 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 7
- 6 min
Measuring Powell's Bank Rate Shock
Q: What happens to net-interest margin for banks when the rate of change in funding costs doubles or more in a single quarter?
3,452 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 4
- 4 min
Banks, Interest Rates & Fed Chairs
Imagine how President Joe Biden will react if Chair Powell needs to announce formal limits on access to US bank deposits.
2,231 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 1
- 6 min
The False Narrative on First Republic Bank
Until Chairman Powell comes clean with the Congress and the American people, more banks will inevitably fail.
5,040 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 24
- 6 min
Commercial Real Estate & Bank OZK
Banks that do not aggressively reprice liabilities and assets as OZK did in Q1 2023 may be left behind.
1,142 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 19
- 7 min
The Bank Deposit Run Is Not Over
The funding crisis affecting US banks is not over and very definitely not limited to smaller banks.
4,515 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 12
- 8 min
Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
1,021 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 9
- 12 min
Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
3,923 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 3
- 6 min
Update: Charles Schwab (SCHW); Sagent Presentation
Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023
4,113 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 30
- 6 min
QT, Interest Rates & Bank Solvency
At the Fed, because “confidence” is considered a factor in “policy,” it is OK to fib and obfuscate about the true cost of monetary policy.
2,212 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 26
- 10 min
Update: New York Community Bank
We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.
1,116 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 23
- 6 min
FOMC Doubles Down on Market Risk
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are another bank failure or two away from returning to the private sector.
2,874 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 21
- 5 min
Winners & Losers in the New Gilded Age
Mark Twain called Washington ''the grand old benevolent National Asylum for the Helpless'' in his classic "The Gilded Age."
1,622 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 17
- 8 min
Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings
We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio
2,598 views
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