The Institutional Risk Analyst

“Our operative assumption is that the strong economy and continued high inflation expectations will mitigate against any interest rate cuts in 2025,” Whalen notes. “We expect to see the FOMC end the shrinkage of the central bank’s balance sheet, which should help to increase the very low growth rates for bank deposits.”

While GHLD provides a lot of good information about their business, the investor disclosure provided by UWMC is a bad joke, especially when you remember that UWMC is the largest nonbank lender in the US. The Q1 2025 press release is just 9 pages in length and lacks some of the most basic financial information available from UWMC’s peers.

TD was up about 6% over the past three months, the only name in our test group with a positive three-month market return, of note.

The overall loss rate for the SOFI credit book is very low and the overall net loss rate reported in the Form Y-9 is also low, as shown in the chart above. But the levels of net loss on the bank's unsecured consumer loan book are eye-opening. As and when credit costs actually start to rise among US banks, the unsecured consumer book of SOFI may become a larger concern.

When President Donald Trump says the Fed should cut interest rates, he is probably right – at least speaking from the perspective of the real estate markets.

President Trump will not try to fire Chairman Powell. Why not? First, because Powell cannot be removed save for malfeasance. Second, because firing Powell would seriously piss off Senate Republicans, killing Trump's hopes for tax legislation this year.

When Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters spoke publicly against the CapitalOne-Discover transaction, they were actually supporting the monopoly position of JPMorgan and other large banks. By opposing CapitalOne-Discover and, indirectly, supporting JPM, Warren, Waters and other progressives are actually hurting low income consumers.

Some of the largest banks by assets have dropped from the top quartile into the bottom half of the distribution for the top 100 banks

Many voices in the media and elsewhere have been predicting an economic slump since 2023. Didn’t happen, but 2025 is very different.

If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates

There is an old rule on Wall Street that industry sectors like airlines and auto manufacturers are trades rather than investments...

If we told you that the Trump White House was planning to end the issuance of all agency MBS, how do you think this will impact financials?

When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.

Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns

Like 2023 and 2024, the year 2025 may end up being relatively stable, yet investors remain worried about stealth externalities.

And just why do financial firms like HOOD, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) and Block (XYZ) talk about EBITDA in their investor materials?

Folks in the financial sector are beginning to wonder if certain parts of the government apparatus will continue to function.

A look at the bottom quarter of WGA Bank Top 100 Index. We view TCBI as a work in progress. But kudos to KEY...

We think it is notable that AMP has underperformed the other members of the group other than SCHW over the past year.