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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Update: SOFI Technology & Credit Risk
The overall loss rate for the SOFI credit book is very low and the overall net loss rate reported in the Form Y-9 is also low, as shown in the chart above. But the levels of net loss on the bank's unsecured consumer loan book are eye-opening. As and when credit costs actually start to rise among US banks, the unsecured consumer book of SOFI may become a larger concern.
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Apr 294 min read


Elizabeth Warren Opposed CapitalOne + Discover? Really?
When Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters spoke publicly against the CapitalOne-Discover transaction, they were actually supporting the monopoly position of JPMorgan and other large banks. By opposing CapitalOne-Discover and, indirectly, supporting JPM, Warren, Waters and other progressives are actually hurting low income consumers.
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Apr 206 min read


Fear & Loathing on Wall Street: GS, MS, AMP, SCHW, RJF, SF
Some of the largest banks by assets have dropped from the top quartile into the bottom half of the distribution for the top 100 banks
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Apr 88 min read


How Will Consumer Lenders Fare in a Serious Recession?
Many voices in the media and elsewhere have been predicting an economic slump since 2023. Didn’t happen, but 2025 is very different.
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Mar 2811 min read


Memo to Bill Pulte and Scott Turner: How to Make Housing More Affordable
A more efficient mortgage backed securities market benefits everyone by lowering mortgage rates and making home ownership more affordable.
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Mar 256 min read


Q: Which Top Seven Bank is Most Vulnerable in a Recession?
If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.
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Mar 2314 min read


Trump, Powell and the Banks
Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates
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Mar 206 min read


Housing Finance Outlook | Q2 2025
There is an old rule on Wall Street that industry sectors like airlines and auto manufacturers are trades rather than investments...
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Mar 1611 min read


Trading Points: Trump, Housing & Private Credit
President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico.
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Mar 57 min read


WGA Releases Q1 2025 Bank Industry Survey | Higher for Longer May Throttle Deposit Growth
Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns
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Feb 282 min read


Logan Riffs on SOMA; XYZ and SYF Say No Recession Yet
Like 2023 and 2024, the year 2025 may end up being relatively stable, yet investors remain worried about stealth externalities.
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Feb 258 min read


The Bottom Quartile: FLG, KEY, LOB & TCBI
A look at the bottom quarter of WGA Bank Top 100 Index. We view TCBI as a work in progress. But kudos to KEY...
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Feb 67 min read


SoFi Technology Gets No Respect
Like many names in the fintech space, growing profits and earnings are usually an indication that a stock is exiting max upside period
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Jan 274 min read


Credit Teeters as President Trump Roars
When President Donald Trump says that interest rates are too high, he may not fully understand just how right he is about the cost of credit
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Jan 276 min read


GSE Release? Really. What Do JPM and BAC Say About 2025 Earnings?
Without profits from commissions and capital markets, BAC would have reported a down quarter due to higher funding and operating expenses.
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Jan 166 min read


Big Losses in Commercial Real Estate & PE in 2025?
Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.
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Jan 136 min read


Taxing Crypto? And Just Where Is That Consumer Recession?
Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.
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Jan 58 min read


Update: Top Bank Asset Managers
As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.
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Dec 30, 20248 min read


Update: Has Jane Fraser Redeemed Citigroup? Nope.
Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?
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Dec 18, 20247 min read


Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...
Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.
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Dec 10, 202415 min read
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