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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2025 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 166 min read
GSE Release? Really. What Do JPM and BAC Say About 2025 Earnings?
Without profits from commissions and capital markets, BAC would have reported a down quarter due to higher funding and operating expenses.
369 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 136 min read
Big Losses in Commercial Real Estate & PE in 2025?
Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.
963 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 58 min read
Taxing Crypto? And Just Where Is That Consumer Recession?
Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.
400 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 30, 20248 min read
Update: Top Bank Asset Managers
As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.
223 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 18, 20247 min read
Update: Has Jane Fraser Redeemed Citigroup? Nope.
Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?
539 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 10, 202415 min read
Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...
Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.
3,244 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 9, 20249 min read
WGA Bank Top 10 Index | Time to Short Financials?
When SCHW surpassed U.S. Bancorp in size in 2021, you knew that SCHW’s leadership had gotten lost.Â
473 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 26, 20248 min read
Fed Fiddles as Liquidity Risk Looms
Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later
1,190 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 18, 20247 min read
Trump, Deficits & Credit Default Swaps
As a practical matter, no Fed chairman or governor can function without the support of the White House and the US Treasury.
935 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 15, 20247 min read
Update: Block Inc, Nu Holdings & Guild Holdings
Notice that SQ co-founder Jack Dorsey styles himself as "block head" in the corp roster, a silly affectation that does not help the stock
412 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 11, 20245 min read
Q: Is JPMorgan Overinflated?
The banking industry has segmented into a handful of above-average performers and JPM is the largest leader of these "winners"
1,370 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 23, 20247 min read
Powell Overshoots the Runway; Update: American Express & Charles Schwab
Last year, when a lot of people were predicting the demise of SCHW, we told our readers to calm down.
705 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 18, 20247 min read
Update: Citigroup, Bank America and Goldman Sachs
How is Goldman going to extricate itself from this profoundly unattractive business with AAPL without destroying Apple Card?
455 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 16, 20246 min read
Should TD Bank Rethink US Retail?
WFC is not even out of dodge yet, but TD has cut off the fingers of one hand in yakuza style and is now headed for years of misery
634 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 22, 20248 min read
GSE Release Under Trump? Post-Rate Cut Margin Calls??
Why should a private Fannie Mae be a 20% risk weight under Basel III, but PFSI or Mr. Cooper (COOP) are 100%?
486 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 16, 20242 min read
IRA Bank Book Q3 2024 Industry Survey
The Q3 interest rate rally still leaves the industry with a negative
capital position since the average securities yield is only 3%
368 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 11, 20245 min read
WGA Bank Top 100+ | Large Banks Retreat, Small Banks Rise
The big story nobody is discussing is the fact that large banks led by JPM, BAC and TFC continue to sell off briskly
425 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 2, 202412 min read
Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
720 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 25, 20247 min read
Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?
SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.
721 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 18, 20249 min read
The Top Seven Banks: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, PNC & TFC
Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.
693 views
Christopher Whalen
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