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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2025 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance


Update: SOFI Technology & Credit Risk
The overall loss rate for the SOFI credit book is very low and the overall net loss rate reported in the Form Y-9 is also low, as shown in the chart above. But the levels of net loss on the bank's unsecured consumer loan book are eye-opening. As and when credit costs actually start to rise among US banks, the unsecured consumer book of SOFI may become a larger concern.

R. Christopher Whalen
15 minutes ago4 min read
24 views


Elizabeth Warren Opposed CapitalOne + Discover? Really?
When Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters spoke publicly against the CapitalOne-Discover transaction, they were actually supporting the monopoly position of JPMorgan and other large banks. By opposing CapitalOne-Discover and, indirectly, supporting JPM, Warren, Waters and other progressives are actually hurting low income consumers.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 206 min read
400 views


Fear & Loathing on Wall Street: GS, MS, AMP, SCHW, RJF, SF
Some of the largest banks by assets have dropped from the top quartile into the bottom half of the distribution for the top 100 banks

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 88 min read
387 views


How Will Consumer Lenders Fare in a Serious Recession?
Many voices in the media and elsewhere have been predicting an economic slump since 2023. Didn’t happen, but 2025 is very different.

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 2811 min read
425 views


Memo to Bill Pulte and Scott Turner: How to Make Housing More Affordable
A more efficient mortgage backed securities market benefits everyone by lowering mortgage rates and making home ownership more affordable.

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 256 min read
655 views


Q: Which Top Seven Bank is Most Vulnerable in a Recession?
If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 2314 min read
666 views


Trump, Powell and the Banks
Even as President Donald Trump demands rate cuts, the Powell FOMC is sharply reducing US economic growth estimates

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 206 min read
390 views


Housing Finance Outlook | Q2 2025
There is an old rule on Wall Street that industry sectors like airlines and auto manufacturers are trades rather than investments...

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 1611 min read
1,057 views


Trading Points: Trump, Housing & Private Credit
President Trump is using the threat of tariffs to change the behavior of some of our trading partners, particularly Canada and Mexico.Â

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 57 min read
442 views


WGA Releases Q1 2025 Bank Industry Survey | Higher for Longer May Throttle Deposit Growth
Industry results in 2024 were reasonably good, but the banking industry is still 200 bp below 2019 levels of asset and equity returns

R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 282 min read
195 views


Logan Riffs on SOMA; XYZ and SYF Say No Recession Yet
Like 2023 and 2024, the year 2025 may end up being relatively stable, yet investors remain worried about stealth externalities.

R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 258 min read
240 views


The Bottom Quartile: FLG, KEY, LOB & TCBI
A look at the bottom quarter of WGA Bank Top 100 Index. We view TCBI as a work in progress. But kudos to KEY...

R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 67 min read
191 views


SoFi Technology Gets No Respect
Like many names in the fintech space, growing profits and earnings are usually an indication that a stock is exiting max upside period

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 274 min read
233 views


Credit Teeters as President Trump Roars
When President Donald Trump says that interest rates are too high, he may not fully understand just how right he is about the cost of credit

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 276 min read
869 views


GSE Release? Really. What Do JPM and BAC Say About 2025 Earnings?
Without profits from commissions and capital markets, BAC would have reported a down quarter due to higher funding and operating expenses.

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 166 min read
448 views


Big Losses in Commercial Real Estate & PE in 2025?
Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 136 min read
1,152 views


Taxing Crypto? And Just Where Is That Consumer Recession?
Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 58 min read
414 views


Update: Top Bank Asset Managers
As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 30, 20248 min read
231 views


Update: Has Jane Fraser Redeemed Citigroup? Nope.
Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 18, 20247 min read
553 views


Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...
Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 10, 202415 min read
3,441 views
Christopher Whalen
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