Report: "McCargo Rule" Threatens Government Loan Market
New Ginnie Mae rule will push nonbanks into credit default on bank warehouse lines and debt indentures
The Institutional Risk Analyst
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R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 21
- 7 min
Interest Rates, FinTechs & MSRs
Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over
468 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 4
- 6 min
Hard Landings & Systemic Crypto
Putting dollar leverage under crypto tokens – that is to say, under nothing – makes for infinite dollar risk.
534 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 29
- 8 min
Bank Earnings Setup: JPM, USB, WFC, BAC & Citi
Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet
408 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 20
- 8 min
The Fed and Housing
Issuing CMOs via the GSEs could help the FOMC out of its trading mess, but represents a monumental irony.
1,415 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 12
- 7 min
QE = Supranormal Credit Risk
Given the demand for safe assets, the true risk free rate today is probably less than zero. Ponder that Chairman Powell
537 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 2
- 7 min
Update: Upstart Holdings & Cross River Bank
If investors and partner banks don’t want to buy UPST loans at current market rates, then the game is over in an originate to sell model
438 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 23
- 7 min
Equity Market Valuations & Quantitative Tightening
The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is the largest ever margin call on equity exposures of all descriptions.
959 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 4
- 5 min
Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
469 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 20
- 5 min
Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
527 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 17
- 6 min
Profile: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs
Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...
382 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 28
- 6 min
Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
321 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 15
- 5 min
QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads
There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when
841 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 21
- 5 min
Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and Post-QE Deflation
The Powell FOMC has lost all credibility when it comes to financial markets or managing inflation and independence from the US Treasury
763 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 12
- 8 min
Q4 Earnings | Big Banks & QE
In the short-run rising interest rates and spreads will help bank earnings. But where is the next credit hot spot?
641 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 6
- 5 min
Interest Rates, Stocks & MSRs
We think the chart below from FRED is worth any amount of words on the impact of QE on equity market valuations.
503 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 4
- 6 min
Mortgage Crises Yesterday and Today
As we move into Q4 2021 earnings, keep your eyes peeled for news of restructuring of urban commercial commercial and multifamily properties
757 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 22, 2021
- 9 min
Update: Block Inc. & Upstart Holdings
Is SQ really, REALLY worth 25x book value? Our respectful answer to that question is no.
308 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 13, 2021
- 11 min
A Bull Case for US Banks?
We ask whether bank fundamentals are starting to catch up to the very full equity market valuations , up 40% since the end of 2020
500 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 7, 2021
- 7 min
Fed Tightens Months Late, Even as it Attacks Liquidity
any of the problems that the Fed now seeks to fix, starting with the unnecessary elimination of LIBOR, are a function of earlier policies...
721 views