Ginnie Mae - Credit Suisse = ? A Biden MSR Tax? Does BKI + ICE = < 2?
Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 9
- 7 min
Mortgage Wrap; PennyMac Financial, Rithm Capital & MSRs
We suspect that the IMBs will be sellers of conventional assets to defend their Ginnie Mae MSRs. Banks may be buyers of conventional assets
515 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 23
- 6 min
Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
514 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 22, 2022
- 6 min
GNMA, FNMA Seize Assets from Reverse Mortgage Funding Estate
The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.
1,171 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 12, 2022
- 4 min
Rising Interest Rates? Really?
Since 2008, dollar swap spreads have traded below Treasury yields, suggesting a persistent demand for dollars coming from offshore.
809 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 6, 2022
- 1 min
Bank M2M Losses Surge in Q3 to $347 Billion
Rapidly rising interest rates in Q3 2022 pushed down the tangible capital for the US banking industry to negative $1.9 trillion
505 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 19, 2022
- 1 min
Record Losses for Mortgage Banks Presage Tough Year Ahead
Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?
526 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 7, 2022
- 7 min
Brief: The Return of Home Equity Loans
Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023
1,298 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 12, 2022
- 7 min
Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup
How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?
659 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 21, 2022
- 7 min
Interest Rates, FinTechs & MSRs
Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over
527 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 4, 2022
- 6 min
Hard Landings & Systemic Crypto
Putting dollar leverage under crypto tokens – that is to say, under nothing – makes for infinite dollar risk.
559 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 29, 2022
- 8 min
Bank Earnings Setup: JPM, USB, WFC, BAC & Citi
Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet
534 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 20, 2022
- 8 min
The Fed and Housing
Issuing CMOs via the GSEs could help the FOMC out of its trading mess, but represents a monumental irony.
1,570 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 12, 2022
- 7 min
QE = Supranormal Credit Risk
Given the demand for safe assets, the true risk free rate today is probably less than zero. Ponder that Chairman Powell
556 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 2, 2022
- 7 min
Update: Upstart Holdings & Cross River Bank
If investors and partner banks don’t want to buy UPST loans at current market rates, then the game is over in an originate to sell model
677 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 23, 2022
- 7 min
Equity Market Valuations & Quantitative Tightening
The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is the largest ever margin call on equity exposures of all descriptions.
987 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 4, 2022
- 5 min
Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
479 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 20, 2022
- 5 min
Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
538 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 17, 2022
- 6 min
Profile: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs
Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...
406 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 28, 2022
- 6 min
Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
360 views
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