GSE Release Under Trump? Post-Rate Cut Margin Calls??
Why should a private Fannie Mae be a 20% risk weight under Basel III, but PFSI or Mr. Cooper (COOP) are 100%?
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2024 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 162 min
IRA Bank Book Q3 2024 Industry Survey
The Q3 interest rate rally still leaves the industry with a negative
capital position since the average securities yield is only 3%
362 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 115 min
WGA Bank Top 100+ | Large Banks Retreat, Small Banks Rise
The big story nobody is discussing is the fact that large banks led by JPM, BAC and TFC continue to sell off briskly
414 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 212 min
Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
705 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 257 min
Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?
SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.
713 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 189 min
The Top Seven Banks: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, PNC & TFC
Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.
678 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 55 min
Wine, Grapes & Inflation; WGA Bank Top 50 Index Q3 2024
The WGA Bank Top 50 is, well, the top half of the population, but far better in quality than the bottom quartile.
640 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Aug 28 min
Stocks Swoon, Retail Credit Rises: PYPL, SQ & ARES
The rotation away from institutional investors to retail funding source for the $1.7 trillion direct lending market is an ominous sign
597 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 278 min
Update: New York Community Bank & Mr. Cooper
Joe Otting does not seem to understand the value of the Flagstar correspondent lending and mortgage servicing business...
624 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 255 min
Update: CapitalOne Financial & PennyMac Financial Services
Of note, PFSI has been growing share in wholesale, a direct challenge to UWMC
332 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 186 min
Update: Pinnacle Financial & Synthetic Credit Risk Transfer
We hear in the channel that banks with festering multifamily exposures are paying north of 10% for similar CRT transactions.
756 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 175 min
Bank Earnings: JPM, BAC, AX, GS & SCHW
GS saw loss provisions fall slightly in Q2 2024 to $282 million but the number was still $600 million in the first half of the year...
475 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 115 min
Earnings Setup: Consumer Lenders | ALLY AXP AX BCS COF SOFI SYF
The first comment to make is that consumer defaults are rising across the board. The only question we need to consider is the rate of change
535 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 710 min
Goldman Sachs Fails Fed Stress Test
Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities
2,982 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 37 min
Who Leads the Asset Gatherers? | SCHW, MS, GS, AMP, RJF & SF
The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.
589 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 18 min
USSC Kills Chevron | Zombie Banks Pass Stress Tests?
The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.
901 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 239 min
Q2 2024 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, USB, PNC, TFC
Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.
1,425 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 176 min
Update: BMO + Bank of the West = ?
BMO arguably has the weakest reserve position among the large Canadian banks....
982 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 129 min
Will Credit Risk Transfer Save the Banks? Are MSRs Overvalued?
How much in synthetic CRT transactions will be done in 2024? Our best guess is many hundreds of billions globally...
755 views
R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 76 min
Faux Bear Raids on OZK and AX? But More Trouble Ahead for CRE Equity
We remind readers that unrealized losses on securities are still a bigger problem for banks than CRE.
615 views
Christopher Whalen
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