The Institutional Risk Analyst

Issuing CMOs via the GSEs could help the FOMC out of its trading mess, but represents a monumental irony.

Given the demand for safe assets, the true risk free rate today is probably less than zero. Ponder that Chairman Powell

If investors and partner banks don’t want to buy UPST loans at current market rates, then the game is over in an originate to sell model

The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is the largest ever margin call on equity exposures of all descriptions.

Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.

Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat

Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...

Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end

There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when

The Powell FOMC has lost all credibility when it comes to financial markets or managing inflation and independence from the US Treasury

In the short-run rising interest rates and spreads will help bank earnings. But where is the next credit hot spot?

We think the chart below from FRED is worth any amount of words on the impact of QE on equity market valuations.

As we move into Q4 2021 earnings, keep your eyes peeled for news of restructuring of urban commercial commercial and multifamily properties

Is SQ really, REALLY worth 25x book value? Our respectful answer to that question is no.

We ask whether bank fundamentals are starting to catch up to the very full equity market valuations , up 40% since the end of 2020

any of the problems that the Fed now seeks to fix, starting with the unnecessary elimination of LIBOR, are a function of earlier policies...

Somehow the folks at UWMC did not take notice of the fact that secondary stock offerings for all issuers have basically disappeared

And in the meantime, we view the end of QE as a net negative for global stocks as well as crypto. Everything is correlated in a crowd.

To paraphrase our friend and fellow mortgage maven Rob Chrisman, ponder a 2022 lending market that’s 75% purchases and just 4.79 million uni

Over the next several years, as the economic cost of COVID becomes full visible, New York City may face its second financial crisis