R. Christopher WhalenMay 316 minQT Means Short Credit RiskMarket risk realized today becomes credit risk tomorrow...
R. Christopher WhalenMay 292 minThe IRA Bank Book | Outlook Q2 2022The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...
R. Christopher WhalenMay 45 minInterest Rates, Credit and MSRsEven as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
R. Christopher WhalenApr 115 minWeak Bank Earnings & Surging Interest Rates = Lower ValuationsWill Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?
R. Christopher WhalenMar 216 minWill SOFR Be the Death of Jay Powell?If the Fed causes another liquidity crisis as it ends QE and shrinks the balance sheet, then Chairman Powell should immediately resign.
R. Christopher WhalenMar 155 minQE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted SpreadsThere a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when
R. Christopher WhalenNov 15, 20214 minAs the Fed Ends QE, Stocks and Crypto Will Retreat And in the meantime, we view the end of QE as a net negative for global stocks as well as crypto. Everything is correlated in a crowd.
R. Christopher WhalenOct 12, 20216 minBank Earnings Setup: Rebound to 2020Many of the better managed financials that we track have become sellers of assets rather than buyers in the past several months.
R. Christopher WhalenSep 20, 202111 minThe IRA Bank Book | Q3 2021In the Q3 2021 edition of The IRA Bank Book, we document the slow destruction of US bank asset and equity returns by the FOMC.
R. Christopher WhalenAug 19, 20216 minFed Chairman Jay Powell as RobinHoodThere is, after all, no free lunch for investors when the Fed is serving the thin meal of Financial Repression
R. Christopher WhalenJul 12, 20213 minQ2 2021 Bank Earnings Setup | GS, JPM, FRC | NIM Lower for LongerCheap liquidity c/o the FOMC does little for bank earnings when asset returns are also falling
R. Christopher WhalenMay 21, 20215 minFed Prepares to Go Direct with LiquidityWhy did the Fed feel the need to absorb $351 billion in cash yesterday via reverse repurchase (RRP) transactions?
R. Christopher WhalenMar 12, 20218 minThe Bank Book Q1 2021: Loss Reserve Releases to Boost EarningsWe anticipate significant loan loss reserve releases back into income in Q1 2021 and thereafter as banks adjust their loan loss provisions
R. Christopher WhalenFeb 9, 20214 minDon't Fight the Fed -- YetRemember when Fed Chair Yellen expressed surprise that more young people were not buying homes?
R. Christopher WhalenJan 17, 20215 minQ4 Earnings Update: JPM, Citi & WFCUnless the FOMC relents and eases up on its massive purchases of Treasury securities and MBS, bank earnings are likely to decline further
R. Christopher WhalenSep 14, 20204 minFinancial Repression and Inflation TargetsNo matter who wins the presidential election in November, have no doubt that Chairman Powell is the most important man in town...