The Institutional Risk Analyst

The banking industry has segmented into a handful of above-average performers and JPM is the largest leader of these "winners"

The Treasury should begin to buy gold again to demonstrate that the dollar is real.

Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.

Rising interest rates are not good for bank earnings or bank equity valuations.

Remember, for every $1 in debt redeemed on the books of the Fed, a bank deposit disappears.

How much of book value do banks lose as the Fed adjusts interest rates to fight inflation?

Mark Twain called Washington ''the grand old benevolent National Asylum for the Helpless'' in his classic "The Gilded Age."

The US banking industry has been rendered insolvent by the Federal Open Market Committee

The cult of ever falling interest rates goes back 50 years and spans the terms of Fed chairs back to Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker...

Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets

Until the FOMC raises interest rates to more “normal” levels, we don’t expect actual volatility to decline.

Demand for risk-free collateral and liquidity is largely a function of how JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon feels about risk on any given day

QE has created a gigantic interest rate mismatch across markets for banks, non-banks and other financial intermediaries including the GSEs

Market risk realized today becomes credit risk tomorrow...

The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...

Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.

Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?

If the Fed causes another liquidity crisis as it ends QE and shrinks the balance sheet, then Chairman Powell should immediately resign.

There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when

And in the meantime, we view the end of QE as a net negative for global stocks as well as crypto. Everything is correlated in a crowd.