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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2025 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance


Should Treasury Accept Debt for Tax Payments? Bank OZK Update
When President Donald Trump says the Fed should cut interest rates, he is probably right – at least speaking from the perspective of the real estate markets.

R. Christopher Whalen
1 day ago7 min read
370 views


Budget Reconciliation, Fiscal Credibility & GSE Release
The Trump budget package is priority number one on Capitol Hill, but odds of the big tax bill passing are falling every day. The White House still needs 25 votes in the House and May is upon us.

R. Christopher Whalen
5 days ago7 min read
844 views


Trump to Fire Jay Powell? No. Bank Earnings? Nada. Bayview for Sale?
President Trump will not try to fire Chairman Powell. Why not? First, because Powell cannot be removed save for malfeasance. Second, because firing Powell would seriously piss off Senate Republicans, killing Trump's hopes for tax legislation this year.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 226 min read
896 views


Trade, Taxes & GSE Release
Who are the two most powerful people in the Trump White House?

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 94 min read
352 views


Rocket + Redfin + Mr. Cooper = First in Class
COOP and RKT, plus RDFN, creates an integrated business of realty, lending, servicing and asset management that is impressive

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 15 min read
365 views


Memo to Bill Pulte and Scott Turner: How to Make Housing More Affordable
A more efficient mortgage backed securities market benefits everyone by lowering mortgage rates and making home ownership more affordable.

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 256 min read
655 views


Q: Which Top Seven Bank is Most Vulnerable in a Recession?
If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 2314 min read
668 views


Housing Finance Outlook | Q2 2025
There is an old rule on Wall Street that industry sectors like airlines and auto manufacturers are trades rather than investments...

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 1611 min read
1,057 views


Trump Attacks the Administrative State
Folks in the financial sector are beginning to wonder if certain parts of the government apparatus will continue to function.

R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 96 min read
779 views


Is Ameriprise Overvalued? Is PennyMac Cheap vs the REITs?
We think it is notable that AMP has underperformed the other members of the group other than SCHW over the past year.

R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 37 min read
178 views


Credit Teeters as President Trump Roars
When President Donald Trump says that interest rates are too high, he may not fully understand just how right he is about the cost of credit

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 276 min read
870 views


Residential Mortgage Finance 2025
The majority of the actual cash profit generated from residential lending is found in the mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 2012 min read
389 views


Critiquing Bill Ackman Statement on GSE Release
Cute reference to "average cost," but total return to date would be of greater interest.

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 28 min read
2,461 views


Update: Has Jane Fraser Redeemed Citigroup? Nope.
Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 18, 20247 min read
553 views


Liquidity Preference: SVB Financial Group, WaMu & Reemerging GSEs
Selling the Treasury's control position in the GSEs while dragging the furious shareholders along behind is not an attractive opportunity

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 12, 20247 min read
497 views


Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...
Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 10, 202415 min read
3,441 views


Update: Blend Labs Inc.
BLND is generating operating leverage via cost reductions, another way of saying that management is slowly winding up the business.

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 5, 20244 min read
350 views


Update: Block Inc, Nu Holdings & Guild Holdings
Notice that SQ co-founder Jack Dorsey styles himself as "block head" in the corp roster, a silly affectation that does not help the stock

R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 15, 20247 min read
415 views


Fiat Currencies, GSEs & Presidents
Could President elect Donald Trump be facing a maxi market correction before inauguration day?

R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 13, 20246 min read
881 views


Financials: Post-Trump Victory Notes
The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.

R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 6, 20245 min read
1,106 views
Christopher Whalen
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