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October 6, 2022 | Premium Service | In 1998, Buddy Van Horn directed “The Dead Pool” starring Clint Eastwood, Liam Neilson, Patricia Clarkson and Jim Carey. The film told the tale of the curator of a macabre list of soon-to-be-dead celebrities. The Guns & Roses soundtrack was a memorable backdrop for Eastwood’s last “Dirty Harry” film, which featured this timeless line from Inspector Callahan: “Well, opinions are like assholes. Everybody has one.” With that important caveat, below follows our view of the walking dead and soon-to-be kaput players in the world of nonbank finance.
With the Fed doubling down on rate increases, the pressure on all manner of nonbank finance companies and fintech platforms is growing. The gentle souls in the economic community talk about a “break” but have no idea about the details. When you are long loans and short Treasuries, and both positions move against you, and the margin calls start coming, that is a “break” that leads to the failure of a nonbank firm. With volatility off the scale and the MBS market shutting down, the real surprise would be if a few nonbank firms did not fail between now and New Year’s Day.