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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2025 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance


How Will Consumer Lenders Fare in a Serious Recession?
Many voices in the media and elsewhere have been predicting an economic slump since 2023. Didn’t happen, but 2025 is very different.

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 2811 min read
430 views


Banks Slide as Asset Sales Accelerate
If we told you that the Trump White House was planning to end the issuance of all agency MBS, how do you think this will impact financials?

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 115 min read
637 views


Logan Riffs on SOMA; XYZ and SYF Say No Recession Yet
Like 2023 and 2024, the year 2025 may end up being relatively stable, yet investors remain worried about stealth externalities.

R. Christopher Whalen
Feb 258 min read
242 views


Taxing Crypto? And Just Where Is That Consumer Recession?
Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 58 min read
415 views


Update: Our Top Five Ideas
How will the sudden shift in Fed policy impact financials? Are we headed for a recession?

R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 24, 20246 min read
655 views


WGA Bank Top 100+ | Large Banks Retreat, Small Banks Rise
The big story nobody is discussing is the fact that large banks led by JPM, BAC and TFC continue to sell off briskly

R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 11, 20245 min read
426 views


Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI

R. Christopher Whalen
Sep 2, 202412 min read
726 views


Earnings Setup: Consumer Lenders | ALLY AXP AX BCS COF SOFI SYF
The first comment to make is that consumer defaults are rising across the board. The only question we need to consider is the rate of change

R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 11, 20245 min read
542 views


Goldman Sachs Fails Fed Stress Test
Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

R. Christopher Whalen
Jul 7, 202410 min read
3,226 views


GSE Release? Really? Update: Ally Financial
You take the GSEs out of conservatorship, the big banks led by JPMorgan and U.S. Bancorp will own the conventional loan market

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 11, 202410 min read
2,032 views


Interview: Bill Kennedy of RiskBridge Advisors
Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 24, 20249 min read
810 views


Stocks, Interest Rates and Reverse RPs
Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 8, 20234 min read
707 views


Profile: Comerica Inc.
If the FOMC raises the target rate for fed funds further, then banks like CMA are likely to come under renewed selling pressure.

R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 28, 20237 min read
1,463 views


Profile: Synchrony Financial
What can SYF tell us about the bleeding edge of unsecured consumer credit?

R. Christopher Whalen
Jun 9, 20236 min read
668 views


PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks
To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate

R. Christopher Whalen
May 23, 20237 min read
2,434 views


Banks, Interest Rates & Fed Chairs
Imagine how President Joe Biden will react if Chair Powell needs to announce formal limits on access to US bank deposits.

R. Christopher Whalen
May 4, 20234 min read
2,418 views


Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial
Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.

R. Christopher Whalen
Jan 30, 20237 min read
999 views


RMF Bankruptcy Signals Systemic Risk in GNMA Market
Bankruptcy of Reverse Mortgage Funding may be first step in a systemic crisis affecting the government loan market

R. Christopher Whalen
Dec 2, 20226 min read
1,103 views


Crypto Crash Signal End of Fintech?
Despite all the hyperbole, the great crypto fraud was a small game, like the party poker that many crypto enthusiasts share in common

R. Christopher Whalen
Nov 25, 20229 min read
361 views


Nonbank Lenders: The Dead Pool
With the Fed doubling down on rate increases, the pressure on all manner of nonbank finance companies and fintech platforms is growing.

R. Christopher Whalen
Oct 6, 20226 min read
645 views
Christopher Whalen
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