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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2025 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Finance


The Single Fed Mandate & Bank Stocks
The Fed's actions in 2008 and again in March 2020 were largely driven by the sole mandate of the central bank -- to keep the Treasury market opening and functioning.

R. Christopher Whalen
3 days ago9 min read
394 views


Post-Trumpian Fintech Bounce: How High? How Long?
At one point last year, HOOD was up several hundred percent, but has given back much of those gains. Yet the leaders of our finance group have outperformed the broad market.

R. Christopher Whalen
5 days ago6 min read
196 views


Housing Finance in the Age of Volatility: GHLD, UWMC, RKT, COOP, JPM
While GHLD provides a lot of good information about their business, the investor disclosure provided by UWMC is a bad joke, especially when you remember that UWMC is the largest nonbank lender in the US. The Q1 2025 press release is just 9 pages in length and lacks some of the most basic financial information available from UWMC’s peers.

R. Christopher Whalen
May 910 min read
240 views


Interview: Henry Smyth on the Return of Gold as Global Reserve Asset
Central banks have changed their posture from net sellers of gold to net buyers. Central banks are not price sensitive regarding gold, they are sensitive to volume and tonnage of available gold.

R. Christopher Whalen
May 710 min read
459 views


Bank Stocks Down | WGA Bank Top 100 Index: Q2 2025
TD was up about 6% over the past three months, the only name in our test group with a positive three-month market return, of note.

R. Christopher Whalen
May 46 min read
306 views


Update: SOFI Technology & Credit Risk
The overall loss rate for the SOFI credit book is very low and the overall net loss rate reported in the Form Y-9 is also low, as shown in the chart above. But the levels of net loss on the bank's unsecured consumer loan book are eye-opening. As and when credit costs actually start to rise among US banks, the unsecured consumer book of SOFI may become a larger concern.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 294 min read
246 views


Should Treasury Accept Debt for Tax Payments? Bank OZK Update
When President Donald Trump says the Fed should cut interest rates, he is probably right – at least speaking from the perspective of the real estate markets.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 287 min read
607 views


Budget Reconciliation, Fiscal Credibility & GSE Release
The Trump budget package is priority number one on Capitol Hill, but odds of the big tax bill passing are falling every day. The White House still needs 25 votes in the House and May is upon us.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 247 min read
987 views


Trump to Fire Jay Powell? No. Bank Earnings? Nada. Bayview for Sale?
President Trump will not try to fire Chairman Powell. Why not? First, because Powell cannot be removed save for malfeasance. Second, because firing Powell would seriously piss off Senate Republicans, killing Trump's hopes for tax legislation this year.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 226 min read
953 views


Elizabeth Warren Opposed CapitalOne + Discover? Really?
When Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters spoke publicly against the CapitalOne-Discover transaction, they were actually supporting the monopoly position of JPMorgan and other large banks. By opposing CapitalOne-Discover and, indirectly, supporting JPM, Warren, Waters and other progressives are actually hurting low income consumers.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 206 min read
456 views


Trading Points: Banks, Interest Rates & MSRs
Some of the smaller holders of MSRs may ask themselves if selling right now is not the best strategy over a 36-48 month horizon.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 168 min read
475 views


Trump Volatility: Go to Cash? Or Go Shopping?
The paper money economy created by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933 trapped Americans and the world into using fiat dollars.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 137 min read
781 views


Trade, Taxes & GSE Release
Who are the two most powerful people in the Trump White House?

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 94 min read
370 views


Fear & Loathing on Wall Street: GS, MS, AMP, SCHW, RJF, SF
Some of the largest banks by assets have dropped from the top quartile into the bottom half of the distribution for the top 100 banks

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 88 min read
405 views


Trump, Tariffs, Silver and the American Dream
US history over the past century was largely written by liberal Democrats, who at least rhetorically opposed tariffs and embraced inflation

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 68 min read
822 views


AIG Reflux: Private Equity Collapse Threatens US Insurers
Is the flow of toxic waste pouring from busted private equity portfolios into credit trades a threat to insurance companies? Yup.

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 36 min read
3,431 views


Rocket + Redfin + Mr. Cooper = First in Class
COOP and RKT, plus RDFN, creates an integrated business of realty, lending, servicing and asset management that is impressive

R. Christopher Whalen
Apr 15 min read
387 views


How Will Consumer Lenders Fare in a Serious Recession?
Many voices in the media and elsewhere have been predicting an economic slump since 2023. Didn’t happen, but 2025 is very different.

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 2811 min read
430 views


Memo to Bill Pulte and Scott Turner: How to Make Housing More Affordable
A more efficient mortgage backed securities market benefits everyone by lowering mortgage rates and making home ownership more affordable.

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 256 min read
686 views


Q: Which Top Seven Bank is Most Vulnerable in a Recession?
If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

R. Christopher Whalen
Mar 2314 min read
675 views
Christopher Whalen
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