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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Circle Internet Soars; BNPL FinTechs Rally as Recession Fades
The proliferation of low- or no-cost coin systems is ultimately negative for established players in nonbank finance and payments, including the major card issuers, as we discuss below. Still worried about interchange fees?
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Jun 87 min read


Post-Trumpian Fintech Bounce: How High? How Long?
At one point last year, HOOD was up several hundred percent, but has given back much of those gains. Yet the leaders of our finance group have outperformed the broad market.
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May 126 min read


Then Old Media Became Redunzl
When will Disney decide to sell some or all of its streaming operations to keep the lights on at its theme parks?
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May 1, 20245 min read


EVs Wane, Fintech Sputters & COF Dumps Commercial Mortgages
Now let’s take a look at how some members of the banking and fintech sector are doing in the first month of 2024.
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Jan 29, 20248 min read


End of Fintech? Biden GSE Release?
Is AFRM maturing from a hot new fintech entrant to a familiar face headed for a bank license?? Yikes.
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Dec 31, 20237 min read


Rates Rally Financials, But Credit Fears Remain
The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.
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Dec 15, 20237 min read


Markets Affirm the Unbearable Lightness of Fintech
When you are in a big crowd, nothing else matters.
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Sep 7, 20235 min read


Fitch Downgrades US to AA+; Fintech Stocks Soar on Powell Inflation
S&P was the first to call out the growing lack of fiscal discipline in Washington, downgrading Uncle Sam in 2011
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Aug 2, 20235 min read


AI, Automobiles & Great Cities
If it’s artificial, then it’s not intelligent.
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Jun 6, 20236 min read


Commercial Real Estate & Bank OZK
Banks that do not aggressively reprice liabilities and assets as OZK did in Q1 2023 may be left behind.
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Apr 24, 20236 min read


Is Stripe Worth $55 Billion? Really?
CEO Patrick Collison is guiding investors and the media to a $200 million profit in 2023. Selective disclosure??
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Feb 21, 20236 min read


Crypto Crash Signal End of Fintech?
Despite all the hyperbole, the great crypto fraud was a small game, like the party poker that many crypto enthusiasts share in common
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Nov 25, 20229 min read


Nonbank Lenders: The Dead Pool
With the Fed doubling down on rate increases, the pressure on all manner of nonbank finance companies and fintech platforms is growing.
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Oct 6, 20226 min read


QE = Supranormal Credit Risk
Given the demand for safe assets, the true risk free rate today is probably less than zero. Ponder that Chairman Powell
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Jun 12, 20227 min read


Update: Upstart Holdings & Cross River Bank
If investors and partner banks don’t want to buy UPST loans at current market rates, then the game is over in an originate to sell model
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Jun 2, 20227 min read


Update: HMPT, RKT, NRZ & UPST
UPST has seen its valuation cut by 60% since March of last year, when its common equity traded at a mere 31x book value.
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Feb 25, 20227 min read


Profile: Cross River Bank
Bottom line, when a bank seems to be doing much better than other banks, there is usually a reason and that reason is almost always bad
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Jan 19, 20226 min read


Update: Block Inc. & Upstart Holdings
Is SQ really, REALLY worth 25x book value? Our respectful answer to that question is no.
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Dec 22, 20219 min read


Profile: Blend Labs, Inc ("BLND")
Is BLND worth more than RKT, or entrenched data monopolies and solution providers such as BKI or even CLGX?
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Jun 30, 20217 min read


Upstart Holdings: Victory for AI? Or Not...
While the progress in machine learning is impressive, horsepower in terms of computational capacity does not translate into intelligence.
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Jun 17, 20219 min read
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